1 00:00:05,030 --> 00:00:02,790 okay thank you uh this is steve cole 2 00:00:06,710 --> 00:00:05,040 from nasa's office of communications in 3 00:00:08,790 --> 00:00:06,720 washington dc 4 00:00:11,110 --> 00:00:08,800 we're here today to discuss global sea 5 00:00:13,910 --> 00:00:11,120 level rise and the continuing challenge 6 00:00:16,470 --> 00:00:13,920 of predicting how fast and how much sea 7 00:00:17,910 --> 00:00:16,480 level will rise in the future our panel 8 00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:17,920 of experts will be giving you an 9 00:00:23,109 --> 00:00:20,800 up-to-date outlook on current conditions 10 00:00:25,429 --> 00:00:23,119 what the latest science is telling us 11 00:00:28,630 --> 00:00:25,439 and what nasa is doing to improve our 12 00:00:30,310 --> 00:00:28,640 understanding of this complex issue 13 00:00:32,389 --> 00:00:30,320 our presenters will be speaking to a 14 00:00:34,549 --> 00:00:32,399 number of graphics during their remarks 15 00:00:36,870 --> 00:00:34,559 all of these are available online let me 16 00:00:38,069 --> 00:00:36,880 give you the url so you can follow along 17 00:00:39,630 --> 00:00:38,079 with that 18 00:00:43,510 --> 00:00:39,640 it's 19 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,190 dot go.nasa.gov 20 00:00:50,549 --> 00:00:46,709 slash 21 00:00:53,910 --> 00:00:50,559 rising seas briefing one word 22 00:00:55,910 --> 00:00:53,920 rising seas briefing 23 00:00:57,510 --> 00:00:55,920 after the presentations by our panelists 24 00:01:00,069 --> 00:00:57,520 we'll open it up to questions from the 25 00:01:01,750 --> 00:01:00,079 media on the phone lines and to those 26 00:01:03,430 --> 00:01:01,760 listening online 27 00:01:04,950 --> 00:01:03,440 if you'd like to ask a question via 28 00:01:08,390 --> 00:01:04,960 social media 29 00:01:10,830 --> 00:01:08,400 use the hashtag asknasa 30 00:01:13,350 --> 00:01:10,840 and we'll take those questions via 31 00:01:15,190 --> 00:01:13,360 twitter we have three experts on sea 32 00:01:16,469 --> 00:01:15,200 level rise science to talk with you 33 00:01:19,109 --> 00:01:16,479 today 34 00:01:21,910 --> 00:01:19,119 first will be steve naram 35 00:01:25,350 --> 00:01:21,920 lead for nasa's c-level change team at 36 00:01:28,469 --> 00:01:25,360 the university of colorado in boulder 37 00:01:30,630 --> 00:01:28,479 eric reno glaciologist at the university 38 00:01:34,710 --> 00:01:30,640 of california irvine 39 00:01:37,429 --> 00:01:34,720 and nasa's jet propulsion laboratory 40 00:01:39,910 --> 00:01:37,439 and josh willis climate scientist also 41 00:01:41,510 --> 00:01:39,920 at nasa's jet propulsion laboratory in 42 00:01:43,270 --> 00:01:41,520 california 43 00:01:45,429 --> 00:01:43,280 we're going to start with opening 44 00:01:47,510 --> 00:01:45,439 opening remarks from mike frylett who is 45 00:01:49,429 --> 00:01:47,520 director of the earth science division 46 00:01:51,030 --> 00:01:49,439 here at nasa headquarters 47 00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:51,040 over to you mike 48 00:01:54,550 --> 00:01:52,240 thanks steve 49 00:01:57,510 --> 00:01:54,560 good afternoon to all of you on the on 50 00:01:59,270 --> 00:01:57,520 the phone and thanks for joining us 51 00:02:01,510 --> 00:01:59,280 sea level rise is one of the most 52 00:02:02,550 --> 00:02:01,520 visible signatures of our changing 53 00:02:05,670 --> 00:02:02,560 climate 54 00:02:08,550 --> 00:02:05,680 and rising seas have profound impacts on 55 00:02:10,070 --> 00:02:08,560 our nation our economy and all of 56 00:02:12,869 --> 00:02:10,080 humanity 57 00:02:15,750 --> 00:02:12,879 more than 150 million people most of 58 00:02:17,510 --> 00:02:15,760 them in asia live within one meter of 59 00:02:19,990 --> 00:02:17,520 present sea level 60 00:02:23,190 --> 00:02:20,000 many more people are threatened by storm 61 00:02:25,670 --> 00:02:23,200 surges and extreme coastal phenomena 62 00:02:28,309 --> 00:02:25,680 whose impacts are made even worse when 63 00:02:29,910 --> 00:02:28,319 the events are superimposed on higher 64 00:02:32,309 --> 00:02:29,920 sea levels 65 00:02:35,030 --> 00:02:32,319 sea level rise will measurably change 66 00:02:37,830 --> 00:02:35,040 the shape of our coastline especially in 67 00:02:40,309 --> 00:02:37,840 low-lying states such as florida 68 00:02:42,070 --> 00:02:40,319 it may entirely eliminate some pacific 69 00:02:45,110 --> 00:02:42,080 island nations 70 00:02:47,910 --> 00:02:45,120 and sea level rise will greatly impact 71 00:02:51,750 --> 00:02:47,920 low-lying major cities like dakar 72 00:02:53,910 --> 00:02:51,760 bangladesh singapore and tokyo 73 00:02:57,350 --> 00:02:53,920 indeed even today 74 00:03:00,229 --> 00:02:57,360 normal spring high tides cause street 75 00:03:02,869 --> 00:03:00,239 flooding in sections of miami something 76 00:03:04,949 --> 00:03:02,879 that didn't happen regularly just a few 77 00:03:07,830 --> 00:03:04,959 decades ago 78 00:03:10,229 --> 00:03:07,840 thanks to precision global spaceborne 79 00:03:13,910 --> 00:03:10,239 measurements that have been acquired by 80 00:03:16,470 --> 00:03:13,920 us at nasa and our partners since 1992 81 00:03:18,309 --> 00:03:16,480 we now know with some certainty that 82 00:03:21,190 --> 00:03:18,319 global mean sea levels have been 83 00:03:23,350 --> 00:03:21,200 increasing at a rate of more than three 84 00:03:24,589 --> 00:03:23,360 millimeters per year 85 00:03:26,869 --> 00:03:24,599 these measurements from 86 00:03:30,149 --> 00:03:26,879 satellite-mounted instruments called 87 00:03:32,470 --> 00:03:30,159 altimeters are amazing feats of nasa 88 00:03:35,030 --> 00:03:32,480 technology and science 89 00:03:37,589 --> 00:03:35,040 with measurement precisions of one part 90 00:03:40,229 --> 00:03:37,599 intended eighth that's one part in a 91 00:03:42,550 --> 00:03:40,239 hundred million the instruments are so 92 00:03:45,830 --> 00:03:42,560 sensitive that if they were mounted on a 93 00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:45,840 commercial jetliner flying at 40 000 94 00:03:52,470 --> 00:03:48,720 feet they could detect the bump caused 95 00:03:55,270 --> 00:03:52,480 by a dime lying flat on the ground 96 00:03:58,070 --> 00:03:55,280 not only can we track global average sea 97 00:04:01,270 --> 00:03:58,080 level changes but we also know that some 98 00:04:04,550 --> 00:04:01,280 geographical regions are experiencing 99 00:04:08,070 --> 00:04:04,560 much greater rates of change and rises 100 00:04:10,229 --> 00:04:08,080 and some regions sea level is falling 101 00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:10,239 systematically 102 00:04:14,550 --> 00:04:11,840 so what you're going to hear from my 103 00:04:16,870 --> 00:04:14,560 colleagues today is that by combining 104 00:04:19,430 --> 00:04:16,880 space-born direct measurements of sea 105 00:04:21,990 --> 00:04:19,440 level with a host of other measurements 106 00:04:25,030 --> 00:04:22,000 from satellites and from sensors in the 107 00:04:27,350 --> 00:04:25,040 oceans themselves nasa scientists are 108 00:04:30,070 --> 00:04:27,360 not only tracking changes in ocean 109 00:04:32,710 --> 00:04:30,080 heights but are also determining the 110 00:04:34,550 --> 00:04:32,720 reasons for these changes 111 00:04:37,189 --> 00:04:34,560 we're developing quantitative 112 00:04:39,990 --> 00:04:37,199 understanding of how much global mean 113 00:04:42,870 --> 00:04:40,000 sea level rise results from thermal 114 00:04:46,790 --> 00:04:42,880 expansion of a warming ocean 115 00:04:49,510 --> 00:04:46,800 and how much results from adding water 116 00:04:51,590 --> 00:04:49,520 to the ocean by melting land-bound ice 117 00:04:54,070 --> 00:04:51,600 sheets and glaciers 118 00:04:57,270 --> 00:04:54,080 we're understanding why sea level rises 119 00:04:59,670 --> 00:04:57,280 falling oic level is falling rather than 120 00:05:02,310 --> 00:04:59,680 rising in some places and we're 121 00:05:04,310 --> 00:05:02,320 constructing models to predict sea level 122 00:05:07,189 --> 00:05:04,320 changes in the coming decades and 123 00:05:09,830 --> 00:05:07,199 centuries under a variety of different 124 00:05:12,150 --> 00:05:09,840 assumed climate regimes 125 00:05:13,749 --> 00:05:12,160 today we're really in a challenging and 126 00:05:15,670 --> 00:05:13,759 exciting time 127 00:05:17,590 --> 00:05:15,680 thanks to spaceborne and other 128 00:05:20,310 --> 00:05:17,600 monitoring programs that have been 129 00:05:23,590 --> 00:05:20,320 instituted over the past two decades we 130 00:05:26,629 --> 00:05:23,600 have sufficient data in hand to describe 131 00:05:30,390 --> 00:05:26,639 in some detail how sea level has evolved 132 00:05:34,070 --> 00:05:30,400 over the last human generation or so 133 00:05:37,110 --> 00:05:34,080 these multi-decadal data sets also serve 134 00:05:39,990 --> 00:05:37,120 as an excellent test bed for theories 135 00:05:43,909 --> 00:05:40,000 and models that purport to describe why 136 00:05:45,189 --> 00:05:43,919 sea level changes in time and in space 137 00:05:47,189 --> 00:05:45,199 as you'll hear 138 00:05:49,510 --> 00:05:47,199 nasa and our interagency and 139 00:05:51,270 --> 00:05:49,520 international partners have many new 140 00:05:53,670 --> 00:05:51,280 satellite missions that will be 141 00:05:56,310 --> 00:05:53,680 launching in the next few years 142 00:05:58,230 --> 00:05:56,320 some of them to continue time series of 143 00:05:59,029 --> 00:05:58,240 precision measurements that we're making 144 00:06:01,510 --> 00:05:59,039 now 145 00:06:03,110 --> 00:06:01,520 and others to make new measurements of 146 00:06:05,350 --> 00:06:03,120 different quantities that will 147 00:06:07,909 --> 00:06:05,360 illuminate key processes the 148 00:06:10,150 --> 00:06:07,919 interactions between processes that 149 00:06:11,510 --> 00:06:10,160 control our complex planet and 150 00:06:13,590 --> 00:06:11,520 environment 151 00:06:16,230 --> 00:06:13,600 let there be no doubt 152 00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:16,240 this is relevant science and it will 153 00:06:20,950 --> 00:06:18,240 result in understanding that yields 154 00:06:23,430 --> 00:06:20,960 direct societal benefit 155 00:06:26,629 --> 00:06:23,440 the effects and the impacts of changing 156 00:06:29,110 --> 00:06:26,639 sea level are being felt now in our 157 00:06:32,070 --> 00:06:29,120 country and throughout the world 158 00:06:34,870 --> 00:06:32,080 and if the recent past his prologue the 159 00:06:37,510 --> 00:06:34,880 challenges and opportunities associated 160 00:06:40,070 --> 00:06:37,520 with changing sea level will become even 161 00:06:43,270 --> 00:06:40,080 more important during the lifetimes of 162 00:06:45,350 --> 00:06:43,280 our children and our grandchildren 163 00:06:48,230 --> 00:06:45,360 and now i'd like to turn it over to 164 00:06:49,670 --> 00:06:48,240 steve nerum 165 00:06:51,430 --> 00:06:49,680 thanks mike 166 00:06:53,029 --> 00:06:51,440 so one of the reasons we wanted to do 167 00:06:54,309 --> 00:06:53,039 this briefing today was that there's 168 00:06:56,230 --> 00:06:54,319 been a lot of new research that's come 169 00:06:58,070 --> 00:06:56,240 out in the last few years 170 00:07:01,350 --> 00:06:58,080 that has presented a different picture 171 00:07:04,390 --> 00:07:01,360 than we had say back in 2012 2013 when 172 00:07:06,070 --> 00:07:04,400 the last ipcc assessment came out 173 00:07:08,070 --> 00:07:06,080 so we want to use this briefing today to 174 00:07:10,550 --> 00:07:08,080 update everyone on where the science 175 00:07:12,710 --> 00:07:10,560 stands now and what nasa is doing to 176 00:07:14,469 --> 00:07:12,720 advance that science 177 00:07:17,350 --> 00:07:14,479 so the main points i want to make today 178 00:07:20,070 --> 00:07:17,360 are that first the data show that seals 179 00:07:21,670 --> 00:07:20,080 rising faster than it was 50 years ago 180 00:07:23,670 --> 00:07:21,680 and it's very likely to get worse in the 181 00:07:25,909 --> 00:07:23,680 future in fact it's already impacting 182 00:07:27,430 --> 00:07:25,919 some low-lying areas 183 00:07:28,950 --> 00:07:27,440 and the biggest uncertainty for 184 00:07:30,790 --> 00:07:28,960 predicting future sea level rise is 185 00:07:33,189 --> 00:07:30,800 determining how quickly the polar ice 186 00:07:35,830 --> 00:07:33,199 sheets will melt in response to warming 187 00:07:37,589 --> 00:07:35,840 and that's just a very difficult problem 188 00:07:39,110 --> 00:07:37,599 but we do have nasa satellite 189 00:07:40,790 --> 00:07:39,120 measurements that are telling us with 190 00:07:43,110 --> 00:07:40,800 great accuracy how much sea water is 191 00:07:45,430 --> 00:07:43,120 rising and what the causes are 192 00:07:47,909 --> 00:07:45,440 and so an interdisciplinary team of 193 00:07:49,749 --> 00:07:47,919 scientists are using these data from 194 00:07:51,670 --> 00:07:49,759 nasa to better understand the dynamics 195 00:07:53,350 --> 00:07:51,680 of large ice sheets and how they respond 196 00:07:55,350 --> 00:07:53,360 to a warming planet and how this will 197 00:07:57,589 --> 00:07:55,360 affect future sea level rise where you 198 00:08:01,990 --> 00:07:57,599 live 199 00:08:04,230 --> 00:08:02,000 so uh let's go to figure one um which 200 00:08:06,150 --> 00:08:04,240 different curves on it um and let's get 201 00:08:07,830 --> 00:08:06,160 a little deeper into the points that 202 00:08:09,909 --> 00:08:07,840 mike discussed 203 00:08:12,070 --> 00:08:09,919 so first the red curve on here 204 00:08:13,270 --> 00:08:12,080 represents the record of global mean sea 205 00:08:14,390 --> 00:08:13,280 level 206 00:08:16,629 --> 00:08:14,400 from 207 00:08:18,710 --> 00:08:16,639 that is started in 1992 with topex 208 00:08:21,189 --> 00:08:18,720 poseidon and has been continued by 209 00:08:24,070 --> 00:08:21,199 json-1 and json-2 210 00:08:25,990 --> 00:08:24,080 so these satellites use precise radars 211 00:08:27,830 --> 00:08:26,000 to power signals off the ocean's surface 212 00:08:30,150 --> 00:08:27,840 in order to determine the height 213 00:08:32,230 --> 00:08:30,160 of the ocean or sea level 214 00:08:34,389 --> 00:08:32,240 so when these measurements are averaged 215 00:08:35,589 --> 00:08:34,399 globally you get the curve you see there 216 00:08:37,909 --> 00:08:35,599 the red line 217 00:08:39,829 --> 00:08:37,919 and these show that sea level 218 00:08:42,389 --> 00:08:39,839 when average globally is increasing at a 219 00:08:44,470 --> 00:08:42,399 rate of about 3.2 millimeters per year 220 00:08:46,070 --> 00:08:44,480 over the last 23 years 221 00:08:51,030 --> 00:08:46,080 with an incredible actually really 222 00:08:54,310 --> 00:08:52,949 now we also have another curve on this 223 00:08:56,389 --> 00:08:54,320 figure one 224 00:08:58,710 --> 00:08:56,399 which is from the grace mission grace 225 00:09:00,550 --> 00:08:58,720 was launched in 2002 226 00:09:02,790 --> 00:09:00,560 and it gives us further insight into 227 00:09:05,269 --> 00:09:02,800 what is causing the observed sea level 228 00:09:07,590 --> 00:09:05,279 change that we've seen in the altimetry 229 00:09:09,430 --> 00:09:07,600 the grace consists of two satellites 230 00:09:11,509 --> 00:09:09,440 already near together 231 00:09:13,910 --> 00:09:11,519 they're about 450 kilometers altitude 232 00:09:16,389 --> 00:09:13,920 but 200 kilometers apart 233 00:09:17,990 --> 00:09:16,399 and there there's a a microwave ranging 234 00:09:19,990 --> 00:09:18,000 this this system on board that measures 235 00:09:22,470 --> 00:09:20,000 the distance between the satellites to 236 00:09:24,310 --> 00:09:22,480 very high precision about one micron 237 00:09:25,829 --> 00:09:24,320 which is smaller than the diameter of a 238 00:09:27,430 --> 00:09:25,839 red blood cell so it's really quite an 239 00:09:29,509 --> 00:09:27,440 achievement 240 00:09:32,150 --> 00:09:29,519 and as the satellites over the earth the 241 00:09:34,829 --> 00:09:32,160 distance between the satellites changes 242 00:09:37,590 --> 00:09:34,839 as ice and water move around on the 243 00:09:39,829 --> 00:09:37,600 earth and so we measure those changes 244 00:09:41,750 --> 00:09:39,839 and then analyze the data to get changes 245 00:09:44,550 --> 00:09:41,760 in mass on the surface of the earth and 246 00:09:47,750 --> 00:09:44,560 and i'll show you those results now 247 00:09:51,110 --> 00:09:47,760 so the green curve on figure one shows 248 00:09:53,750 --> 00:09:51,120 the changes in ocean mass 249 00:09:55,750 --> 00:09:53,760 over average over the whole globe 250 00:09:59,030 --> 00:09:55,760 and they show that ocean mass has been 251 00:10:00,710 --> 00:09:59,040 been increasing at a rate of about 1.9 252 00:10:03,509 --> 00:10:00,720 millimeters per year 253 00:10:04,870 --> 00:10:03,519 so by ocean mass i mean this is changes 254 00:10:06,550 --> 00:10:04,880 due to water 255 00:10:07,430 --> 00:10:06,560 being added or taken away from the 256 00:10:09,670 --> 00:10:07,440 oceans 257 00:10:12,630 --> 00:10:09,680 in this case the mass is increasing so 258 00:10:14,150 --> 00:10:12,640 water is being added to the oceans 259 00:10:16,470 --> 00:10:14,160 but you can also see that there's a lot 260 00:10:18,389 --> 00:10:16,480 of similarity between these two curves 261 00:10:20,790 --> 00:10:18,399 and especially for the short-term 262 00:10:23,110 --> 00:10:20,800 variations and they also show 263 00:10:24,949 --> 00:10:23,120 that changes in water on the land due to 264 00:10:27,190 --> 00:10:24,959 hydrologic changes such as changes in 265 00:10:28,550 --> 00:10:27,200 rainfall patterns due to el nino also 266 00:10:30,310 --> 00:10:28,560 affect this curve 267 00:10:33,829 --> 00:10:30,320 a good example you might see is the dip 268 00:10:36,230 --> 00:10:33,839 there in 2011 which has been tied to 269 00:10:38,230 --> 00:10:36,240 the la nina then and to flooding that 270 00:10:40,550 --> 00:10:38,240 occurred in australia and other areas 271 00:10:43,750 --> 00:10:40,560 around the world 272 00:10:45,509 --> 00:10:43,760 so this is already a big clue for 273 00:10:47,509 --> 00:10:45,519 what has caused the changes in sea level 274 00:10:49,590 --> 00:10:47,519 that we see in the altimetry 275 00:10:51,509 --> 00:10:49,600 now let's move on to figure two which is 276 00:10:53,350 --> 00:10:51,519 also from greece 277 00:10:54,790 --> 00:10:53,360 but grace can look not only at the 278 00:10:57,110 --> 00:10:54,800 oceans but it could also look at the 279 00:10:58,870 --> 00:10:57,120 land to tell us where the 280 00:11:00,550 --> 00:10:58,880 water is coming from 281 00:11:03,750 --> 00:11:00,560 and in this case we're showing grace 282 00:11:05,910 --> 00:11:03,760 estimates of mass change mass loss in 283 00:11:07,910 --> 00:11:05,920 greenland antarctica the blue curve is 284 00:11:10,230 --> 00:11:07,920 antarctica at the top lower covers 285 00:11:12,949 --> 00:11:10,240 greenland the mass loss there 286 00:11:15,829 --> 00:11:12,959 since 2002 when grace was launched is 287 00:11:19,190 --> 00:11:15,839 about 0.25 millimeters per year for 288 00:11:19,910 --> 00:11:19,200 antarctica and 0.74 millimeters per year 289 00:11:21,829 --> 00:11:19,920 for 290 00:11:24,470 --> 00:11:21,839 greenland 291 00:11:25,990 --> 00:11:24,480 so together with these nasa satellite 292 00:11:27,990 --> 00:11:26,000 measurements satellite symmetry and 293 00:11:29,990 --> 00:11:28,000 satellite gravity measurements we can 294 00:11:30,949 --> 00:11:30,000 conclude that roughly one-third of the 295 00:11:32,710 --> 00:11:30,959 rise 296 00:11:35,110 --> 00:11:32,720 of sea level that we see is due to 297 00:11:37,110 --> 00:11:35,120 thermal expansion that's basically when 298 00:11:38,790 --> 00:11:37,120 heat goes into the ocean the water 299 00:11:40,310 --> 00:11:38,800 expands just like the mercury in a 300 00:11:42,310 --> 00:11:40,320 thermometer does 301 00:11:44,150 --> 00:11:42,320 and one-third is due to the ice melt in 302 00:11:45,910 --> 00:11:44,160 greenland in antarctica and then one 303 00:11:47,750 --> 00:11:45,920 third is due to the melting of mountain 304 00:11:51,030 --> 00:11:47,760 glaciers outside of greenland and 305 00:11:55,829 --> 00:11:53,910 so let's go on to uh figure three 306 00:11:57,750 --> 00:11:55,839 so satellite symmetry you know i just 307 00:12:00,870 --> 00:11:57,760 showed you global average sealable 308 00:12:01,670 --> 00:12:00,880 change but it also tells us how 309 00:12:03,670 --> 00:12:01,680 the 310 00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:03,680 sea level is changing regionally since 311 00:12:08,230 --> 00:12:05,200 1992 312 00:12:09,910 --> 00:12:08,240 and so on figure three the bottom plot 313 00:12:14,550 --> 00:12:09,920 shows changes in sea level in 314 00:12:15,590 --> 00:12:14,560 centimeters from 1993 through 2013. 315 00:12:17,990 --> 00:12:15,600 and you can see there's kind of a 316 00:12:20,310 --> 00:12:18,000 distinctive pattern there in the pacific 317 00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:20,320 and this is that has been associated 318 00:12:26,470 --> 00:12:22,880 with the pacific decadal oscillation or 319 00:12:28,710 --> 00:12:26,480 pdo the pdo is a natural cycle that is 320 00:12:31,269 --> 00:12:28,720 superimposed or think of happening on 321 00:12:33,590 --> 00:12:31,279 top of the long term changes 322 00:12:34,550 --> 00:12:33,600 from climate 323 00:12:38,870 --> 00:12:34,560 so 324 00:12:40,629 --> 00:12:38,880 satellite altimetry the top plot shows 325 00:12:41,829 --> 00:12:40,639 the last two years and there's an 326 00:12:43,670 --> 00:12:41,839 indication 327 00:12:45,509 --> 00:12:43,680 that this pattern is changing it's 328 00:12:47,670 --> 00:12:45,519 actually flipping its sign 329 00:12:50,829 --> 00:12:47,680 over the last few years and josh willis 330 00:12:52,629 --> 00:12:50,839 will discuss the implications of this uh 331 00:12:54,230 --> 00:12:52,639 later 332 00:12:55,670 --> 00:12:54,240 the regional sea level change is also 333 00:12:57,190 --> 00:12:55,680 expected to be affected by the melting 334 00:12:58,790 --> 00:12:57,200 of the ice sheets with 335 00:13:00,550 --> 00:12:58,800 with less sealable change near the ice 336 00:13:02,069 --> 00:13:00,560 sheets and more farther away from the 337 00:13:03,590 --> 00:13:02,079 air sheets and refer to that as ice 338 00:13:04,870 --> 00:13:03,600 sheet fingerprints 339 00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:04,880 and uh 340 00:13:08,150 --> 00:13:06,399 the uh that's another 341 00:13:09,829 --> 00:13:08,160 impact on the regional sea level change 342 00:13:12,470 --> 00:13:09,839 that you might see in your backyard but 343 00:13:14,310 --> 00:13:12,480 also scientists at nasa and other 344 00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:14,320 institutions are also studying vertical 345 00:13:17,350 --> 00:13:15,600 land movement 346 00:13:19,110 --> 00:13:17,360 and how it can exacerbate sea level 347 00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:19,120 change in some locations such as new 348 00:13:23,990 --> 00:13:22,000 orleans and one way to do that is to use 349 00:13:25,910 --> 00:13:24,000 gps receivers on land that are very 350 00:13:26,949 --> 00:13:25,920 precise and measure the vertical land 351 00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:26,959 movement 352 00:13:31,590 --> 00:13:28,240 that's another area of important 353 00:13:33,910 --> 00:13:31,600 research for sea level change 354 00:13:36,230 --> 00:13:33,920 so we've already experienced about 0.8 355 00:13:38,150 --> 00:13:36,240 degrees centigrade of warming and 356 00:13:40,790 --> 00:13:38,160 paleoclimate research suggests sea level 357 00:13:43,030 --> 00:13:40,800 will rise about 2.3 meters for every 358 00:13:44,870 --> 00:13:43,040 degree centigrade of warming 359 00:13:46,710 --> 00:13:44,880 but we're uncertain how quickly the ice 360 00:13:49,509 --> 00:13:46,720 sheets will melt so we need to bed 361 00:13:51,670 --> 00:13:49,519 understand i see dynamics and eric 362 00:13:53,990 --> 00:13:51,680 brigno and josh willis will address this 363 00:13:55,829 --> 00:13:54,000 in a minute 364 00:13:57,110 --> 00:13:55,839 so i've been focusing here on nasa 365 00:13:58,949 --> 00:13:57,120 satellite measurements i'd really like 366 00:14:00,550 --> 00:13:58,959 to summarize not only the ones i talked 367 00:14:02,310 --> 00:14:00,560 about but all of the measurements that 368 00:14:03,670 --> 00:14:02,320 are helping contribute to understanding 369 00:14:04,870 --> 00:14:03,680 sea level change what's going to happen 370 00:14:06,550 --> 00:14:04,880 in the future 371 00:14:08,230 --> 00:14:06,560 so i talked about satellite gravity we 372 00:14:11,110 --> 00:14:08,240 have the grace mission that launched in 373 00:14:13,189 --> 00:14:11,120 2002 also nasa is planning on launching 374 00:14:14,790 --> 00:14:13,199 the grace following mission in 2017 that 375 00:14:17,750 --> 00:14:14,800 will continue those measurements 376 00:14:20,150 --> 00:14:17,760 for ocean altimetry we've had topex json 377 00:14:22,230 --> 00:14:20,160 1 jason 2 and hopefully jason 3 will 378 00:14:24,710 --> 00:14:22,240 launch in 2016 to continue that time 379 00:14:26,790 --> 00:14:24,720 series in addition nasa is developing 380 00:14:28,629 --> 00:14:26,800 the swat mission for launch in 2020 that 381 00:14:32,069 --> 00:14:28,639 will measure sea level across a wide 382 00:14:35,189 --> 00:14:32,079 swath of the oceans 120 kilometers wide 383 00:14:37,750 --> 00:14:35,199 plus we have ice altimetry icesat and 384 00:14:39,590 --> 00:14:37,760 soon in 2018 icesat-2 will continue 385 00:14:40,550 --> 00:14:39,600 measurements of the height of the ice 386 00:14:42,949 --> 00:14:40,560 sheets 387 00:14:45,670 --> 00:14:42,959 and how it contributes how it tells us 388 00:14:47,509 --> 00:14:45,680 what is contributing to seatable change 389 00:14:49,829 --> 00:14:47,519 and finally nissa is a sar mission 390 00:14:51,910 --> 00:14:49,839 that's going to launch in late 2020 and 391 00:14:53,910 --> 00:14:51,920 among other things it tells us 392 00:14:55,110 --> 00:14:53,920 the velocity of the outlet glaciers of 393 00:14:56,949 --> 00:14:55,120 the ice sheets 394 00:14:58,470 --> 00:14:56,959 and that's not a clue to how the ice 395 00:15:00,790 --> 00:14:58,480 sheets are evolving 396 00:15:02,710 --> 00:15:00,800 with the warming 397 00:15:05,670 --> 00:15:02,720 so just to finish up i'd like to mention 398 00:15:07,350 --> 00:15:05,680 that in 2014 nasa formed a new sea level 399 00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:07,360 change team that i'm the leader of 400 00:15:12,389 --> 00:15:09,600 that's composed of an italian team of 401 00:15:14,870 --> 00:15:12,399 scientists with expertise in glaciology 402 00:15:16,389 --> 00:15:14,880 hydrology oceanography geophysics and a 403 00:15:18,470 --> 00:15:16,399 variety of other fields 404 00:15:19,829 --> 00:15:18,480 and you need all these fields as you 405 00:15:21,829 --> 00:15:19,839 might expect from what i've been talking 406 00:15:24,629 --> 00:15:21,839 about here to actually understand all of 407 00:15:25,590 --> 00:15:24,639 the factors that affect future saleable 408 00:15:27,189 --> 00:15:25,600 rides 409 00:15:28,710 --> 00:15:27,199 so the primary objective of this team is 410 00:15:30,470 --> 00:15:28,720 to improve our knowledge of ice mass 411 00:15:32,069 --> 00:15:30,480 loss and regional sealable change so we 412 00:15:34,949 --> 00:15:32,079 can better predict future sealable 413 00:15:36,389 --> 00:15:34,959 change and its regional variation 414 00:15:38,230 --> 00:15:36,399 later this year the team will introduce 415 00:15:39,189 --> 00:15:38,240 a web portal containing research from 416 00:15:40,710 --> 00:15:39,199 the team 417 00:15:43,189 --> 00:15:40,720 but another excellent source for 418 00:15:46,790 --> 00:15:43,199 saleable information can be found 419 00:15:48,310 --> 00:15:46,800 at the url climate.data.gov 420 00:15:50,470 --> 00:15:48,320 so now uh 421 00:15:52,230 --> 00:15:50,480 eric righto and josh willis are both 422 00:15:53,910 --> 00:15:52,240 members of this new team so i like to 423 00:15:57,350 --> 00:15:53,920 pass this off to them so they can give 424 00:15:58,790 --> 00:15:57,360 their perspective on the briefing today 425 00:16:01,110 --> 00:15:58,800 eric 426 00:16:03,350 --> 00:16:01,120 hi thank you steve um we're going to 427 00:16:05,910 --> 00:16:03,360 turn our attention a little bit on ice 428 00:16:08,230 --> 00:16:05,920 sheets ice sheets are contributing to 429 00:16:10,310 --> 00:16:08,240 sea level rise sooner and more 430 00:16:12,710 --> 00:16:10,320 significantly than anticipated 431 00:16:15,269 --> 00:16:12,720 as steve said about one third of the 432 00:16:18,230 --> 00:16:15,279 observed global sea level rise is due to 433 00:16:20,389 --> 00:16:18,240 the melting of ice sheets into the ocean 434 00:16:21,990 --> 00:16:20,399 we know that with future warming ice 435 00:16:23,590 --> 00:16:22,000 sheets will dominate sea level rise 436 00:16:26,629 --> 00:16:23,600 because they hold a much larger volume 437 00:16:28,870 --> 00:16:26,639 of ice than glaciers and ice caps 438 00:16:32,069 --> 00:16:28,880 paleo climate records suggest very 439 00:16:34,470 --> 00:16:32,079 clearly that with future warming we may 440 00:16:36,949 --> 00:16:34,480 lock ourselves into multiple meters sea 441 00:16:39,910 --> 00:16:36,959 level rise we're talking about 6 meter 442 00:16:41,509 --> 00:16:39,920 18 feet and higher of sea level rise 443 00:16:43,430 --> 00:16:41,519 as steve mentioned the time scales of 444 00:16:44,790 --> 00:16:43,440 this rise is not well constrained by 445 00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:44,800 those records 446 00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:46,320 sea level may rise half a meter per 447 00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:48,480 century or several meters per century we 448 00:16:53,829 --> 00:16:51,360 just don't know more research is needed 449 00:16:55,350 --> 00:16:53,839 to constrain those race from from past 450 00:16:56,949 --> 00:16:55,360 events 451 00:16:58,710 --> 00:16:56,959 we've never seen an ice sheet collapse 452 00:17:01,350 --> 00:16:58,720 in the past we do not know what it looks 453 00:17:03,110 --> 00:17:01,360 like and past records of collapse of 454 00:17:05,829 --> 00:17:03,120 marine-based ice sheets have been 455 00:17:07,750 --> 00:17:05,839 bulldozed by re-advances 456 00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:07,760 uh how ice sheets melt into the ocean 457 00:17:12,230 --> 00:17:10,240 they melt in three different ways uh one 458 00:17:13,669 --> 00:17:12,240 is from the surface due to warmer air 459 00:17:16,309 --> 00:17:13,679 temperature this is the case in 460 00:17:18,390 --> 00:17:16,319 greenland and for glaciers and ice cap 461 00:17:21,029 --> 00:17:18,400 they also melt from below when ice 462 00:17:22,949 --> 00:17:21,039 enters in contact with ocean waters 463 00:17:25,350 --> 00:17:22,959 and the third way is uh from the 464 00:17:27,750 --> 00:17:25,360 periphery when glaciers break up into 465 00:17:29,510 --> 00:17:27,760 icebergs that melt and decay in the 466 00:17:31,029 --> 00:17:29,520 ocean that's the 467 00:17:32,390 --> 00:17:31,039 important process in greenland and 468 00:17:34,630 --> 00:17:32,400 antarctica 469 00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:34,640 surface melt is well understood and it's 470 00:17:37,190 --> 00:17:36,160 projected to increase refrigerant 471 00:17:38,870 --> 00:17:37,200 warming 472 00:17:40,470 --> 00:17:38,880 several nasa teams 473 00:17:42,789 --> 00:17:40,480 work in the field every summer to look 474 00:17:43,909 --> 00:17:42,799 at the fate of surface melt on and below 475 00:17:47,029 --> 00:17:43,919 the ice sheet 476 00:17:49,669 --> 00:17:47,039 mass balance and more on this will be 477 00:17:52,310 --> 00:17:49,679 discussed on friday 478 00:17:53,750 --> 00:17:52,320 next month you can turn over to figure 479 00:17:56,470 --> 00:17:53,760 seven here 480 00:17:58,710 --> 00:17:56,480 nasa operation icebridge will fly over 481 00:18:00,789 --> 00:17:58,720 greenland to measure how much milk took 482 00:18:02,710 --> 00:18:00,799 place this summer in various parts of 483 00:18:04,630 --> 00:18:02,720 greenland you can see on the figure the 484 00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:04,640 spatial coverage of the flight tracks to 485 00:18:09,029 --> 00:18:07,200 be covered next month to get an idea we 486 00:18:11,350 --> 00:18:09,039 will cover the various ranges of 487 00:18:12,870 --> 00:18:11,360 elevation snow and ice regimes 488 00:18:15,110 --> 00:18:12,880 to characterize the changes over the 489 00:18:17,190 --> 00:18:15,120 entire ice sheet so this data will 490 00:18:19,990 --> 00:18:17,200 inform us about the magnitude of the 491 00:18:22,549 --> 00:18:20,000 2015 summer melt so we can compare it 492 00:18:25,510 --> 00:18:22,559 with satellite data we can evaluate our 493 00:18:27,750 --> 00:18:25,520 surface melt models and this also is 494 00:18:29,830 --> 00:18:27,760 done in preparation for the data to be 495 00:18:32,150 --> 00:18:29,840 collected by icesat-2 496 00:18:34,230 --> 00:18:32,160 to be launched in 2018 497 00:18:37,669 --> 00:18:34,240 icesat-2 will continue his observations 498 00:18:39,669 --> 00:18:37,679 pour to pole on a continuous basis 499 00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:39,679 in contrast to surface melt the 500 00:18:43,669 --> 00:18:42,640 mechanisms of fast ice melt into the 501 00:18:47,909 --> 00:18:43,679 ocean 502 00:18:50,710 --> 00:18:47,919 and the breaking up of calving clips 503 00:18:52,950 --> 00:18:50,720 into icebergs are not well understood 504 00:18:55,029 --> 00:18:52,960 they're not well represented in models 505 00:18:57,909 --> 00:18:55,039 and therefore affected by large 506 00:19:01,029 --> 00:18:57,919 uncertainties this is why current model 507 00:19:02,870 --> 00:19:01,039 projection such as ipcc projections 508 00:19:03,990 --> 00:19:02,880 which represent the state-of-the-art in 509 00:19:05,750 --> 00:19:04,000 modeling 510 00:19:07,750 --> 00:19:05,760 produce relatively conservative 511 00:19:10,310 --> 00:19:07,760 scenarios of ice sheet decay because 512 00:19:12,470 --> 00:19:10,320 those models do not yet include the 513 00:19:15,510 --> 00:19:12,480 mechanism of fast melt in the ocean and 514 00:19:18,150 --> 00:19:15,520 fast ice fracture into the ocean 515 00:19:21,430 --> 00:19:18,160 that would prevail during area of rapid 516 00:19:23,350 --> 00:19:21,440 or catastrophic ice sheet retreat 517 00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:23,360 so to reduce these uncertainties nasa is 518 00:19:28,710 --> 00:19:26,640 supporting research on multiple france 519 00:19:31,110 --> 00:19:28,720 nasa is deploying airborne instruments 520 00:19:33,270 --> 00:19:31,120 to measure glacier depths and the shape 521 00:19:35,590 --> 00:19:33,280 of sub-ice shelf cavities in greenland 522 00:19:38,150 --> 00:19:35,600 and antarctica this is the icebridge 523 00:19:41,029 --> 00:19:38,160 program which is scheduled to last until 524 00:19:43,990 --> 00:19:41,039 uh at least 2019 525 00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:44,000 uh we use uh satellite to serve changes 526 00:19:48,950 --> 00:19:46,240 in mass surface elevation and speed of 527 00:19:51,110 --> 00:19:48,960 the glaciers and more satellites will be 528 00:19:54,150 --> 00:19:51,120 launched as steve mentioned to continue 529 00:19:55,909 --> 00:19:54,160 these observations into the next decades 530 00:19:58,150 --> 00:19:55,919 to improve our understanding of ice 531 00:19:59,990 --> 00:19:58,160 ocean interaction several programs have 532 00:20:02,150 --> 00:20:00,000 been launched including the ocean 533 00:20:04,549 --> 00:20:02,160 melting greenland mission that josh 534 00:20:06,310 --> 00:20:04,559 willis will talk about in a minute 535 00:20:09,190 --> 00:20:06,320 and eventually this knowledge will be 536 00:20:11,830 --> 00:20:09,200 transferred into more reliable ice ocean 537 00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:11,840 atmosphere couple models which are 538 00:20:16,230 --> 00:20:14,240 developed by a growing community of 539 00:20:18,870 --> 00:20:16,240 climate models 540 00:20:20,870 --> 00:20:18,880 numerical models need to be run at much 541 00:20:22,789 --> 00:20:20,880 higher vertical and horizontal 542 00:20:24,310 --> 00:20:22,799 resolution than today they need to use 543 00:20:26,870 --> 00:20:24,320 better boundary conditions than 544 00:20:29,190 --> 00:20:26,880 available today in order to simulate 545 00:20:31,990 --> 00:20:29,200 the full complexity of ice sheet systems 546 00:20:34,549 --> 00:20:32,000 we are not there yet but nasa and other 547 00:20:37,830 --> 00:20:34,559 agencies are contributing to making this 548 00:20:39,830 --> 00:20:37,840 happen sooner rather than later 549 00:20:42,149 --> 00:20:39,840 observations combined with observations 550 00:20:43,909 --> 00:20:42,159 from partner agencies clearly indicate 551 00:20:45,830 --> 00:20:43,919 that significant changes are taking 552 00:20:47,750 --> 00:20:45,840 place today on ice sheets 553 00:20:49,909 --> 00:20:47,760 a number of these changes of an 554 00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:49,919 irreversible character meaning it would 555 00:20:54,149 --> 00:20:52,000 take centuries to reverse the trend of 556 00:20:56,070 --> 00:20:54,159 ice retreat or we cover some ice 557 00:20:57,110 --> 00:20:56,080 elements that have been lost i'm 558 00:20:58,789 --> 00:20:57,120 thinking about 559 00:21:00,630 --> 00:20:58,799 in particular about the progressive 560 00:21:03,110 --> 00:21:00,640 collapse of ice sharks in the antarctic 561 00:21:05,029 --> 00:21:03,120 peninsula which is still ongoing and 562 00:21:07,190 --> 00:21:05,039 moving southward 563 00:21:08,630 --> 00:21:07,200 the iverson retreat of the glaciers in 564 00:21:10,870 --> 00:21:08,640 the emerson sea sector of west 565 00:21:13,990 --> 00:21:10,880 antarctica that we talked about in may 566 00:21:15,510 --> 00:21:14,000 2014 this is still ongoing although we 567 00:21:17,669 --> 00:21:15,520 are witnessing a slight pause in the 568 00:21:20,390 --> 00:21:17,679 rate of retreat of some of his glaciers 569 00:21:22,630 --> 00:21:20,400 uh the retreat is proceeding inland 570 00:21:24,549 --> 00:21:22,640 or the fast retreat of the largest ice 571 00:21:25,750 --> 00:21:24,559 stream in greenland the jakob silent is 572 00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:25,760 very 573 00:21:31,350 --> 00:21:28,640 i now i'm asking you to turn on to 574 00:21:33,830 --> 00:21:31,360 figure 5 and 6 575 00:21:36,230 --> 00:21:33,840 which were acquired 576 00:21:38,310 --> 00:21:36,240 just a few weeks ago we witnessed the 577 00:21:40,310 --> 00:21:38,320 spectacular calving event of jacob 578 00:21:42,789 --> 00:21:40,320 savanni's bre in greenland 579 00:21:43,750 --> 00:21:42,799 which we removed 12 square kilometer of 580 00:21:45,909 --> 00:21:43,760 ice 581 00:21:47,909 --> 00:21:45,919 in one day and push the carving front of 582 00:21:49,430 --> 00:21:47,919 that glacier farther back than ever 583 00:21:51,190 --> 00:21:49,440 before 584 00:21:54,470 --> 00:21:51,200 the glacier keeps retreating rapidly 585 00:21:56,149 --> 00:21:54,480 into a deep canyon since 2002 586 00:21:57,990 --> 00:21:56,159 and this summer i've seen another series 587 00:22:00,710 --> 00:21:58,000 of spectacular calving events from these 588 00:22:02,950 --> 00:22:00,720 glaciers we are likely to see more of 589 00:22:05,350 --> 00:22:02,960 those carving events in the coming years 590 00:22:07,270 --> 00:22:05,360 as the glacier retreats into deeper ice 591 00:22:09,110 --> 00:22:07,280 this is a marine based glacier it will 592 00:22:10,870 --> 00:22:09,120 remain in contact with the ocean for 593 00:22:13,430 --> 00:22:10,880 decades and centuries as it retreats 594 00:22:14,310 --> 00:22:13,440 further inland and it contains enough 595 00:22:16,390 --> 00:22:14,320 ice 596 00:22:19,110 --> 00:22:16,400 to raise global sea level by half a 597 00:22:21,270 --> 00:22:19,120 meter it's just one glacier in greenland 598 00:22:23,270 --> 00:22:21,280 once all melted to sea 599 00:22:24,870 --> 00:22:23,280 so in summary there are large 600 00:22:26,950 --> 00:22:24,880 uncertainties about the time scale of 601 00:22:28,230 --> 00:22:26,960 sea level rise associated with the decay 602 00:22:29,830 --> 00:22:28,240 of ice sheets 603 00:22:32,470 --> 00:22:29,840 the rates of civil rights could range 604 00:22:34,950 --> 00:22:32,480 from the lower bound of ipcc projection 605 00:22:37,909 --> 00:22:34,960 to its upper range and beyond if we 606 00:22:41,510 --> 00:22:37,919 include extreme scenarios of fast ice 607 00:22:43,190 --> 00:22:41,520 break up and rapid retreat analog to 608 00:22:44,470 --> 00:22:43,200 those experienced in prior warmer 609 00:22:46,390 --> 00:22:44,480 periods 610 00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:46,400 observations suggest that we should be 611 00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:48,640 very cautious to conclude too soon that 612 00:22:52,230 --> 00:22:50,720 conservative scenarios are reasonable 613 00:22:54,710 --> 00:22:52,240 they may not be 614 00:22:56,310 --> 00:22:54,720 and this is at the heart of what we nasa 615 00:22:58,789 --> 00:22:56,320 and other national 616 00:23:00,390 --> 00:22:58,799 and international agencies are working 617 00:23:03,190 --> 00:23:00,400 on right now 618 00:23:04,710 --> 00:23:03,200 and i'll pass it on to josh 619 00:23:07,190 --> 00:23:04,720 thank you eric 620 00:23:09,510 --> 00:23:07,200 i have had some phone troubles up to now 621 00:23:11,110 --> 00:23:09,520 so if i drop out my apologies i'll be 622 00:23:13,590 --> 00:23:11,120 back 623 00:23:16,630 --> 00:23:13,600 as eric mentioned i am the lead 624 00:23:19,270 --> 00:23:16,640 scientist for a new mission to measure 625 00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:19,280 oceans and their impact on the greenland 626 00:23:22,549 --> 00:23:20,640 ice sheet 627 00:23:24,070 --> 00:23:22,559 we started this year the name of the 628 00:23:27,350 --> 00:23:24,080 mission is called oceans melting 629 00:23:29,270 --> 00:23:27,360 greenland or omg for short and before 630 00:23:31,270 --> 00:23:29,280 you ask yes i did 631 00:23:33,669 --> 00:23:31,280 pick that name while i was deleting old 632 00:23:35,909 --> 00:23:33,679 texts off my cell phone 633 00:23:39,909 --> 00:23:35,919 the ocean's melting greenland campaign 634 00:23:41,750 --> 00:23:39,919 will measure oceans and ice loss around 635 00:23:43,909 --> 00:23:41,760 the edges of greenland 636 00:23:46,950 --> 00:23:43,919 for the next five years starting next 637 00:23:48,950 --> 00:23:46,960 year and continuing through 2020 638 00:23:51,350 --> 00:23:48,960 we'll be collecting 639 00:23:53,270 --> 00:23:51,360 observations and if you look at figure 640 00:23:55,350 --> 00:23:53,280 eight you can get an idea of the kinds 641 00:23:57,669 --> 00:23:55,360 of observations we'll be collecting 642 00:23:59,590 --> 00:23:57,679 these include 643 00:24:02,070 --> 00:23:59,600 radar measurements of the height of the 644 00:24:04,230 --> 00:24:02,080 ice near the edges right where it comes 645 00:24:06,390 --> 00:24:04,240 into contact with the water these 646 00:24:07,350 --> 00:24:06,400 glaciers drain the ice sheet into the 647 00:24:08,070 --> 00:24:07,360 oceans 648 00:24:10,230 --> 00:24:08,080 and 649 00:24:12,310 --> 00:24:10,240 as the oceans warm 650 00:24:14,390 --> 00:24:12,320 the impact of the warming water can be 651 00:24:16,950 --> 00:24:14,400 felt right at the ice edge so in 652 00:24:19,669 --> 00:24:16,960 addition omg will also collect 653 00:24:21,590 --> 00:24:19,679 observations of the ocean directly using 654 00:24:23,190 --> 00:24:21,600 expendable probes that are dropped out 655 00:24:25,669 --> 00:24:23,200 of an aircraft 656 00:24:27,750 --> 00:24:25,679 and these will 657 00:24:29,430 --> 00:24:27,760 these will continue to be collected 658 00:24:32,870 --> 00:24:29,440 through 2020 659 00:24:35,029 --> 00:24:32,880 but we also need to understand the 660 00:24:46,710 --> 00:24:35,039 the 661 00:24:49,190 --> 00:24:46,720 waters surrounding it 662 00:24:50,230 --> 00:24:49,200 the ocean actually has warm water 663 00:24:52,630 --> 00:24:50,240 underneath 664 00:24:54,870 --> 00:24:52,640 cold water the warm water is salty so 665 00:24:57,430 --> 00:24:54,880 it's heavier and it sits down at depth 666 00:24:58,950 --> 00:24:57,440 so it has to reach into these canyons 667 00:25:01,350 --> 00:24:58,960 carved into the 668 00:25:03,830 --> 00:25:01,360 continental shelf by ancient glaciers in 669 00:25:06,630 --> 00:25:03,840 order to reach the glaciers and interact 670 00:25:09,350 --> 00:25:06,640 with them so omg is actually also 671 00:25:11,990 --> 00:25:09,360 collecting two different kinds of data 672 00:25:13,029 --> 00:25:12,000 to map the shape and depth of the sea 673 00:25:15,350 --> 00:25:13,039 floor 674 00:25:19,029 --> 00:25:15,360 right now we have just completed the 675 00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:19,039 very first phase of a shipborne campaign 676 00:25:23,669 --> 00:25:20,640 which carries a 677 00:25:25,990 --> 00:25:23,679 multi-beam echo sounder which sweeps out 678 00:25:28,310 --> 00:25:26,000 measurements of depth along the sea 679 00:25:29,990 --> 00:25:28,320 floor and in figure 9 you can see some 680 00:25:31,110 --> 00:25:30,000 of the very early data from this 681 00:25:34,390 --> 00:25:31,120 campaign 682 00:25:35,269 --> 00:25:34,400 collected in a fjord called umanak 683 00:25:37,750 --> 00:25:35,279 which 684 00:25:39,909 --> 00:25:37,760 carries a great deal of ice off of the 685 00:25:42,070 --> 00:25:39,919 glacier off of the ice sheet and into 686 00:25:43,830 --> 00:25:42,080 the water and we now have a much better 687 00:25:46,149 --> 00:25:43,840 idea of how 688 00:25:47,590 --> 00:25:46,159 the pathways by which this warm water 689 00:25:50,950 --> 00:25:47,600 can reach up 690 00:25:54,950 --> 00:25:50,960 next to the glaciers and also 691 00:25:57,750 --> 00:25:54,960 cause increased melting there so omg is 692 00:26:00,070 --> 00:25:57,760 looking to measure both the ocean 693 00:26:01,990 --> 00:26:00,080 warming and the ice melt over the course 694 00:26:04,470 --> 00:26:02,000 of the next five years and try and 695 00:26:06,390 --> 00:26:04,480 determine just how much 696 00:26:08,830 --> 00:26:06,400 just how much the greenland ice sheet is 697 00:26:10,470 --> 00:26:08,840 being melted away at the edges by the 698 00:26:11,430 --> 00:26:10,480 ocean 699 00:26:14,390 --> 00:26:11,440 now 700 00:26:15,830 --> 00:26:14,400 steve earlier talked about sea level 701 00:26:18,070 --> 00:26:15,840 rise and 702 00:26:20,149 --> 00:26:18,080 we also heard from mike freilich about 703 00:26:22,710 --> 00:26:20,159 how we've been measuring sea level rise 704 00:26:24,310 --> 00:26:22,720 over the past 23 years using precision 705 00:26:26,549 --> 00:26:24,320 altimeters 706 00:26:28,549 --> 00:26:26,559 in addition to my work on omg i'm also 707 00:26:30,710 --> 00:26:28,559 the project scientist for the jason 3 708 00:26:31,909 --> 00:26:30,720 mission which we hope to launch 709 00:26:34,390 --> 00:26:31,919 sometime 710 00:26:35,909 --> 00:26:34,400 later this year or early next year 711 00:26:39,110 --> 00:26:35,919 as we work out the 712 00:26:41,190 --> 00:26:39,120 details of how to get back to space with 713 00:26:42,070 --> 00:26:41,200 spacex 714 00:26:52,710 --> 00:26:42,080 the 715 00:26:55,110 --> 00:26:52,720 last 22 years as observed by 716 00:26:56,870 --> 00:26:55,120 satellite altimeters and if you look at 717 00:26:59,590 --> 00:26:56,880 the animation you'll see that almost 718 00:27:02,390 --> 00:26:59,600 everywhere in the ocean is orange or red 719 00:27:05,190 --> 00:27:02,400 indicating a rise and this rise has been 720 00:27:06,390 --> 00:27:05,200 about seven centimeters over the last 22 721 00:27:08,870 --> 00:27:06,400 years 722 00:27:11,430 --> 00:27:08,880 however if you look in more detail there 723 00:27:14,149 --> 00:27:11,440 are regions around the planet where sea 724 00:27:16,630 --> 00:27:14,159 level is not actually rising but has 725 00:27:18,470 --> 00:27:16,640 fallen or has risen much more quickly 726 00:27:20,789 --> 00:27:18,480 than the global average 727 00:27:23,110 --> 00:27:20,799 this is caused for a variety of reasons 728 00:27:25,350 --> 00:27:23,120 and it's one of the main 729 00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:25,360 concerns of oceanographers studying sea 730 00:27:29,750 --> 00:27:27,360 level change using the satellite 731 00:27:31,750 --> 00:27:29,760 altimeter data 732 00:27:35,909 --> 00:27:31,760 the satellite altimeter shows us the 733 00:27:38,149 --> 00:27:35,919 complex nature of the sea level problem 734 00:27:40,630 --> 00:27:38,159 in places like the north atlantic where 735 00:27:42,549 --> 00:27:40,640 as the globe spins around you'll see 736 00:27:44,789 --> 00:27:42,559 a large 737 00:27:46,870 --> 00:27:44,799 warming and cooling or high sea level 738 00:27:49,510 --> 00:27:46,880 and low sea level surrounding either 739 00:27:53,110 --> 00:27:49,520 side of the gulf stream as it veers off 740 00:27:55,990 --> 00:27:53,120 of the united states east coast into and 741 00:27:57,990 --> 00:27:56,000 carries warm water across the atlantic 742 00:27:59,750 --> 00:27:58,000 this actually occurs because of a change 743 00:28:01,750 --> 00:27:59,760 in either the strength or location of 744 00:28:04,549 --> 00:28:01,760 the gulf stream which affects sea level 745 00:28:05,510 --> 00:28:04,559 on the long term 746 00:28:10,630 --> 00:28:05,520 other 747 00:28:13,669 --> 00:28:10,640 decadal oscillation which is a large 748 00:28:16,630 --> 00:28:13,679 scale very long time scale phenomenon in 749 00:28:19,029 --> 00:28:16,640 the pacific ocean which rearranges heat 750 00:28:21,350 --> 00:28:19,039 and causes sea levels to rise more 751 00:28:23,510 --> 00:28:21,360 quickly in some places than others 752 00:28:25,510 --> 00:28:23,520 this can be seen off the west coast of 753 00:28:27,110 --> 00:28:25,520 the united states where sea levels have 754 00:28:30,149 --> 00:28:27,120 actually fallen 755 00:28:32,149 --> 00:28:30,159 for the last 22 years on average now the 756 00:28:34,389 --> 00:28:32,159 pacific decadal oscillation is thought 757 00:28:36,710 --> 00:28:34,399 to be part of a natural cycle occurring 758 00:28:39,029 --> 00:28:36,720 in the pacific ocean so in the long run 759 00:28:41,350 --> 00:28:39,039 we expect the sea levels on the west 760 00:28:44,070 --> 00:28:41,360 coast to catch up to the global mean and 761 00:28:46,230 --> 00:28:44,080 probably even exceed the global means so 762 00:28:48,070 --> 00:28:46,240 we could be looking at much faster than 763 00:28:50,149 --> 00:28:48,080 average sea level rise on the united 764 00:28:52,870 --> 00:28:50,159 states east coast sometime in the next 765 00:28:54,549 --> 00:28:52,880 20 or so years 766 00:28:56,470 --> 00:28:54,559 the final animation i'd like to talk 767 00:28:58,549 --> 00:28:56,480 about is in figure 11 768 00:29:01,029 --> 00:28:58,559 and as some of you may already be aware 769 00:29:03,190 --> 00:29:01,039 there is talk of a very large el nino 770 00:29:05,909 --> 00:29:03,200 occurring throughout this winter and 771 00:29:08,310 --> 00:29:05,919 having a big impact on rainfall 772 00:29:10,549 --> 00:29:08,320 particularly here in california 773 00:29:12,230 --> 00:29:10,559 this animation shows a comparison of the 774 00:29:14,950 --> 00:29:12,240 1997 775 00:29:17,990 --> 00:29:14,960 uh el nino which was the last really 776 00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:18,000 large el nino to bring changes to the 777 00:29:22,789 --> 00:29:20,240 entire weather and patter climate 778 00:29:25,350 --> 00:29:22,799 patterns all the way across the planet 779 00:29:28,870 --> 00:29:25,360 um if we compare this year's el nino to 780 00:29:31,430 --> 00:29:28,880 the monster el nino of 1997 we see that 781 00:29:33,269 --> 00:29:31,440 in some ways this el nino has already 782 00:29:36,070 --> 00:29:33,279 exceeded it in size 783 00:29:38,630 --> 00:29:36,080 however the next few months in really 784 00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:38,640 the next month or two we will begin to 785 00:29:43,350 --> 00:29:41,120 know whether this el nino will persist 786 00:29:45,830 --> 00:29:43,360 through the winter certainly there's an 787 00:29:48,710 --> 00:29:45,840 el nino and it's pretty big but we'll 788 00:29:51,510 --> 00:29:48,720 have a big impact on rainfall the next 789 00:29:54,070 --> 00:29:51,520 month or two we'll really decide that 790 00:29:55,510 --> 00:29:54,080 so with that i think i'll stop and pass 791 00:29:57,750 --> 00:29:55,520 the uh 792 00:29:59,350 --> 00:29:57,760 pass this back over to steve for 793 00:30:02,389 --> 00:29:59,360 questions 794 00:30:05,269 --> 00:30:02,399 okay thanks josh um just a note before 795 00:30:07,350 --> 00:30:05,279 we go to questions uh we now have tom 796 00:30:09,350 --> 00:30:07,360 wagner with us he's our cryosphere 797 00:30:11,190 --> 00:30:09,360 program scientist here at nasa 798 00:30:12,149 --> 00:30:11,200 headquarters and he'll take any 799 00:30:14,310 --> 00:30:12,159 questions 800 00:30:17,110 --> 00:30:14,320 anyone has about the nasa's about nasa's 801 00:30:19,510 --> 00:30:17,120 sea level rise program as mike pride had 802 00:30:22,230 --> 00:30:19,520 to leave us for another appointment just 803 00:30:24,149 --> 00:30:22,240 a reminder to ask a question via social 804 00:30:27,190 --> 00:30:24,159 media on twitter 805 00:30:28,870 --> 00:30:27,200 use the hashtag ask nasa 806 00:30:30,230 --> 00:30:28,880 and for the media 807 00:30:31,909 --> 00:30:30,240 on the call 808 00:30:34,549 --> 00:30:31,919 to ask a question and put yourself in 809 00:30:36,549 --> 00:30:34,559 the queue just on your phone 810 00:30:38,870 --> 00:30:36,559 type star one 811 00:30:42,470 --> 00:30:38,880 we'll start with a few questions that 812 00:30:45,510 --> 00:30:42,480 we've received already via social media 813 00:30:47,830 --> 00:30:45,520 the first is if seas continues to rise 814 00:30:49,990 --> 00:30:47,840 flooding low land areas what will happen 815 00:30:53,750 --> 00:30:50,000 to the world's freshwater rivers and 816 00:30:53,760 --> 00:31:00,950 who could take that question 817 00:31:05,830 --> 00:31:02,389 steve is that something you could 818 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,669 yeah i uh 819 00:31:14,149 --> 00:31:12,470 you know it's it's uh there's no 820 00:31:16,630 --> 00:31:14,159 it's be difficult to talk about the 821 00:31:18,870 --> 00:31:16,640 direct effects but certainly as i 822 00:31:21,990 --> 00:31:18,880 mentioned earlier in my slides 823 00:31:24,070 --> 00:31:22,000 you know sea level is intimately tied to 824 00:31:26,389 --> 00:31:24,080 the hydrologic cycle which is the rivers 825 00:31:27,590 --> 00:31:26,399 and streams on the continents 826 00:31:30,870 --> 00:31:27,600 and so 827 00:31:33,269 --> 00:31:30,880 as we change the the global water cycle 828 00:31:35,669 --> 00:31:33,279 that will definitely have an effect on 829 00:31:37,269 --> 00:31:35,679 the water on the continents and 830 00:31:39,509 --> 00:31:37,279 and thus those rivers and streams 831 00:31:41,269 --> 00:31:39,519 eventually 832 00:31:42,870 --> 00:31:41,279 hey this is tom wagner from nasa i just 833 00:31:44,789 --> 00:31:42,880 wanted to add a little bit that as sea 834 00:31:47,190 --> 00:31:44,799 levels rise you also get salt water 835 00:31:49,669 --> 00:31:47,200 intrusion to local aquifers so it pushes 836 00:31:51,909 --> 00:31:49,679 back fresh water from coastal areas and 837 00:31:54,630 --> 00:31:51,919 the range of the estuary also changes 838 00:31:56,470 --> 00:31:54,640 quite a bit so there are some impacts to 839 00:31:58,389 --> 00:31:56,480 local waterways particularly in coastal 840 00:32:00,789 --> 00:31:58,399 areas and also fresh water resources 841 00:32:02,630 --> 00:32:00,799 that are in the ground 842 00:32:04,389 --> 00:32:02,640 okay thank you 843 00:32:06,549 --> 00:32:04,399 one other question from social media 844 00:32:08,149 --> 00:32:06,559 before we go to the journalists on the 845 00:32:09,430 --> 00:32:08,159 phone line 846 00:32:11,909 --> 00:32:09,440 what are the biggest 847 00:32:14,070 --> 00:32:11,919 specific technological gaps that you 848 00:32:16,389 --> 00:32:14,080 have now in studying this problem is it 849 00:32:19,029 --> 00:32:16,399 the matter of better sensors 850 00:32:25,029 --> 00:32:19,039 modeling or tools to inform local 851 00:32:29,990 --> 00:32:27,909 eric would you like to take that one 852 00:32:31,990 --> 00:32:30,000 yeah i can say a few words on that i 853 00:32:34,789 --> 00:32:32,000 think the biggest technological 854 00:32:36,630 --> 00:32:34,799 challenge for in particular studying 855 00:32:39,590 --> 00:32:36,640 the evolutions of ice sheets and how 856 00:32:41,750 --> 00:32:39,600 fast they may decay into the ocean 857 00:32:45,350 --> 00:32:41,760 is that a lot of these changes are 858 00:32:48,230 --> 00:32:45,360 taking place from below the surface 859 00:32:49,509 --> 00:32:48,240 which is much more difficult to 860 00:32:51,669 --> 00:32:49,519 to observe 861 00:32:54,389 --> 00:32:51,679 from satellites than than surface 862 00:32:56,630 --> 00:32:54,399 processes we're interested in 863 00:32:58,310 --> 00:32:56,640 warm water at depth which we cannot 864 00:33:01,350 --> 00:32:58,320 sense easily from the surface we're 865 00:33:03,190 --> 00:33:01,360 interested in the troughs uh the passage 866 00:33:06,310 --> 00:33:03,200 for warm water to research glaciers 867 00:33:08,950 --> 00:33:06,320 which we cannot easily observe uh 868 00:33:11,110 --> 00:33:08,960 from from from the surface and also some 869 00:33:13,350 --> 00:33:11,120 of the processes are taking place at the 870 00:33:15,430 --> 00:33:13,360 base of these ice sheets uh below 871 00:33:16,470 --> 00:33:15,440 kilometers of ice uh which are 872 00:33:18,870 --> 00:33:16,480 challenging 873 00:33:21,909 --> 00:33:18,880 another challenge that we're facing and 874 00:33:24,630 --> 00:33:21,919 mentioned earlier is that in order to 875 00:33:25,830 --> 00:33:24,640 produce more reliable projection 876 00:33:30,549 --> 00:33:25,840 the model 877 00:33:33,909 --> 00:33:30,559 of sophistication and they need to be 878 00:33:36,870 --> 00:33:33,919 run at much higher resolution than a lot 879 00:33:38,870 --> 00:33:36,880 of computers are able to do at present 880 00:33:40,470 --> 00:33:38,880 so we these are some of the challenges 881 00:33:42,870 --> 00:33:40,480 that we're facing 882 00:33:44,630 --> 00:33:42,880 i would just add to uh eric's answer 883 00:33:47,590 --> 00:33:44,640 that i think one of the challenges that 884 00:33:49,909 --> 00:33:47,600 we face is that uh we need more time 885 00:33:53,269 --> 00:33:49,919 as the ice sheets are just beginning 886 00:33:55,269 --> 00:33:53,279 their uh collapse and and 887 00:33:57,350 --> 00:33:55,279 to really decay 888 00:33:58,950 --> 00:33:57,360 we need some time to observe them and 889 00:34:00,789 --> 00:33:58,960 watch how this happens 890 00:34:03,350 --> 00:34:00,799 and that's part of the 891 00:34:05,190 --> 00:34:03,360 reasoning behind omg 892 00:34:07,590 --> 00:34:05,200 because we're going to be collecting a 893 00:34:09,270 --> 00:34:07,600 series of data over time and really 894 00:34:10,710 --> 00:34:09,280 we hope to see 895 00:34:12,389 --> 00:34:10,720 large changes in the ocean and 896 00:34:13,349 --> 00:34:12,399 corresponding changes in the ice that 897 00:34:15,909 --> 00:34:13,359 will give us 898 00:34:17,349 --> 00:34:15,919 a better idea of how these two things 899 00:34:19,030 --> 00:34:17,359 might be related 900 00:34:20,790 --> 00:34:19,040 i should also say that i forgot to 901 00:34:23,109 --> 00:34:20,800 mention during the primary call that you 902 00:34:24,710 --> 00:34:23,119 can learn more about omg at 903 00:34:29,669 --> 00:34:24,720 the following website 904 00:34:34,389 --> 00:34:31,909 and i'll uh echo josh's comment some 905 00:34:36,069 --> 00:34:34,399 more time that we you know we do need 906 00:34:37,750 --> 00:34:36,079 more time but we also need to continue 907 00:34:40,310 --> 00:34:37,760 the satellite measurements 908 00:34:42,629 --> 00:34:40,320 uh over that time so we have the clear 909 00:34:45,270 --> 00:34:42,639 picture that we need to understand how 910 00:34:47,510 --> 00:34:45,280 things are evolving 911 00:34:49,190 --> 00:34:47,520 okay thank you both our first question 912 00:34:52,550 --> 00:34:49,200 from the phone lines 913 00:34:55,270 --> 00:34:54,149 well thank you for taking my call can 914 00:34:59,589 --> 00:34:55,280 you hear me 915 00:35:02,230 --> 00:34:59,599 yes go ahead great thanks so much 916 00:35:04,230 --> 00:35:02,240 we as journalists we need to translate 917 00:35:05,829 --> 00:35:04,240 this into 918 00:35:07,750 --> 00:35:05,839 understandable information for our 919 00:35:09,910 --> 00:35:07,760 readers and i was just wondering if 920 00:35:12,310 --> 00:35:09,920 there's anything that you could say 921 00:35:13,910 --> 00:35:12,320 should be the the take away message from 922 00:35:15,829 --> 00:35:13,920 what you've learned from the satellite 923 00:35:16,790 --> 00:35:15,839 measurements over the past year in terms 924 00:35:20,470 --> 00:35:16,800 of 925 00:35:22,470 --> 00:35:20,480 uncertainty but what are we what are we 926 00:35:28,310 --> 00:35:22,480 really facing what are we looking at in 927 00:35:31,589 --> 00:35:30,390 well i think uh this is josh willis i 928 00:35:34,069 --> 00:35:31,599 think one of the things that we've 929 00:35:36,710 --> 00:35:34,079 learned is that uh the ice sheets are 930 00:35:38,710 --> 00:35:36,720 reacting even faster than we had 931 00:35:41,270 --> 00:35:38,720 previously suspected 932 00:35:43,270 --> 00:35:41,280 and that there's a large amount 933 00:35:45,430 --> 00:35:43,280 uh there's a large amount of uh ice 934 00:35:52,550 --> 00:35:45,440 there and the potential for sea level 935 00:35:57,589 --> 00:35:54,870 eric would you like to add to that 936 00:36:00,950 --> 00:35:57,599 yeah i would i would just add to 937 00:36:03,910 --> 00:36:00,960 to to this uh for your readers uh that 938 00:36:06,870 --> 00:36:03,920 uh i think on a personal level uh the 939 00:36:09,910 --> 00:36:06,880 data collected over the last few years 940 00:36:12,230 --> 00:36:09,920 uh make me more concerned about 941 00:36:14,790 --> 00:36:12,240 a bit of decay of ice sheets than than i 942 00:36:16,390 --> 00:36:14,800 was in the past so as as we go along i 943 00:36:20,230 --> 00:36:16,400 think we are a little bit more worried 944 00:36:25,109 --> 00:36:22,470 okay thank you our next question is from 945 00:36:28,310 --> 00:36:25,119 seth bornstein associated press go ahead 946 00:36:30,390 --> 00:36:28,320 seth okay uh yes thank you continue on 947 00:36:32,710 --> 00:36:30,400 that and i do have a follow-up maybe for 948 00:36:33,670 --> 00:36:32,720 eric or for any of you 949 00:36:35,109 --> 00:36:33,680 um 950 00:36:37,829 --> 00:36:35,119 you guys published an awful lot of 951 00:36:40,390 --> 00:36:37,839 interesting research last fall 952 00:36:42,230 --> 00:36:40,400 winter around agu i think it was i'm 953 00:36:44,710 --> 00:36:42,240 timing it's the wall 954 00:36:48,630 --> 00:36:44,720 and i'm trying to figure out what has 955 00:36:51,670 --> 00:36:48,640 changed from then to now 956 00:36:55,109 --> 00:36:51,680 is there some new research is there 957 00:36:56,790 --> 00:36:55,119 something new new um estimations for sea 958 00:36:59,349 --> 00:36:56,800 level rise from the 959 00:37:01,349 --> 00:36:59,359 west antarctic ice sheet 960 00:37:02,230 --> 00:37:01,359 i i guess basically what i'm coming down 961 00:37:04,310 --> 00:37:02,240 to is 962 00:37:06,870 --> 00:37:04,320 everything you said to me seems the same 963 00:37:09,750 --> 00:37:06,880 things you said last fall winter 964 00:37:12,150 --> 00:37:09,760 um 965 00:37:14,069 --> 00:37:12,160 is there a reason you're doing this now 966 00:37:17,430 --> 00:37:14,079 and is there anything new that i haven't 967 00:37:18,710 --> 00:37:17,440 figured out here that i'm missing 968 00:37:20,310 --> 00:37:18,720 hey seth this is tom wagner from 969 00:37:23,109 --> 00:37:20,320 headquarters look 970 00:37:25,190 --> 00:37:23,119 the short answer is no the longer answer 971 00:37:27,190 --> 00:37:25,200 is number one this is the first time we 972 00:37:28,790 --> 00:37:27,200 put together that 20-year record on the 973 00:37:30,870 --> 00:37:28,800 actual sea level rise around the whole 974 00:37:32,870 --> 00:37:30,880 planet and we're showing the complexity 975 00:37:34,550 --> 00:37:32,880 of that the other thing is that in the 976 00:37:37,030 --> 00:37:34,560 recent months you've seen a couple of 977 00:37:39,349 --> 00:37:37,040 papers come out trying to do more 978 00:37:40,950 --> 00:37:39,359 detailed models of the ice sheets 979 00:37:43,109 --> 00:37:40,960 and the other thing that's happened is 980 00:37:44,870 --> 00:37:43,119 now nasa has this sea level change team 981 00:37:46,630 --> 00:37:44,880 which is committed to getting together 982 00:37:49,030 --> 00:37:46,640 all the interdisciplinary research to 983 00:37:50,630 --> 00:37:49,040 really improve it and so one of the 984 00:37:53,190 --> 00:37:50,640 reasons that i push for this is that you 985 00:37:55,349 --> 00:37:53,200 know if you look in the ipcc report you 986 00:37:57,109 --> 00:37:55,359 see really really wide error bars and 987 00:37:59,109 --> 00:37:57,119 what we're trying to do is kind of rip 988 00:38:00,950 --> 00:37:59,119 the hood off the research a little bit 989 00:38:02,790 --> 00:38:00,960 and let you guys see inside to the 990 00:38:05,349 --> 00:38:02,800 detailed work we're doing on this 991 00:38:07,750 --> 00:38:05,359 question across the board from actually 992 00:38:09,750 --> 00:38:07,760 radar altimetry of the surface of the 993 00:38:11,750 --> 00:38:09,760 ocean and how high it's getting through 994 00:38:14,150 --> 00:38:11,760 to going out and doing our new missions 995 00:38:16,230 --> 00:38:14,160 like omg which also just started right 996 00:38:17,750 --> 00:38:16,240 now and is just going in the field to go 997 00:38:19,829 --> 00:38:17,760 and measure what's going on at the ice 998 00:38:23,190 --> 00:38:19,839 ocean front right there 999 00:38:24,630 --> 00:38:23,200 okay okay and and then to follow up um 1000 00:38:25,910 --> 00:38:24,640 you guys talk an awful lot about ice 1001 00:38:28,069 --> 00:38:25,920 sheets and that's what you know the big 1002 00:38:30,470 --> 00:38:28,079 thing has been the last couple years 1003 00:38:31,670 --> 00:38:30,480 um but with omg you are looking at a 1004 00:38:32,950 --> 00:38:31,680 glacier 1005 00:38:35,829 --> 00:38:32,960 can you 1006 00:38:38,390 --> 00:38:35,839 expand a little bit on on trends with 1007 00:38:41,510 --> 00:38:38,400 glacier melt and sea level rise and 1008 00:38:45,510 --> 00:38:41,520 particularly if you don't mind 1009 00:38:47,109 --> 00:38:45,520 alaska glaciers and sea level rise 1010 00:38:49,430 --> 00:38:47,119 hey this is tom again i'll just take 1011 00:38:51,109 --> 00:38:49,440 this one so there's a fascinating paper 1012 00:38:52,870 --> 00:38:51,119 that actually just came out within the 1013 00:38:55,589 --> 00:38:52,880 last few weeks that looked at alaskan 1014 00:38:58,230 --> 00:38:55,599 glaciers and the curious thing is that 1015 00:39:00,470 --> 00:38:58,240 the alaskan glaciers we thought the 1016 00:39:01,910 --> 00:39:00,480 glaciers that at the ocean 1017 00:39:03,750 --> 00:39:01,920 looked like they were dumping all their 1018 00:39:05,589 --> 00:39:03,760 ice into the ocean the amazing thing is 1019 00:39:06,870 --> 00:39:05,599 that now that looks like that process 1020 00:39:08,710 --> 00:39:06,880 has stopped 1021 00:39:10,230 --> 00:39:08,720 and our future modeling for alaskan 1022 00:39:12,390 --> 00:39:10,240 glaciers is going to be based on the 1023 00:39:14,550 --> 00:39:12,400 surface mass balance how much they melt 1024 00:39:15,990 --> 00:39:14,560 because that looks to be a bigger factor 1025 00:39:18,150 --> 00:39:16,000 now 1026 00:39:20,150 --> 00:39:18,160 one of the ideas for that hot water from 1027 00:39:21,829 --> 00:39:20,160 the ocean might be causing ice sheet 1028 00:39:23,750 --> 00:39:21,839 instability actually came from the work 1029 00:39:25,430 --> 00:39:23,760 on alaskan glaciers but i want to throw 1030 00:39:26,790 --> 00:39:25,440 this question over to eric rino because 1031 00:39:29,829 --> 00:39:26,800 i have a feeling he'd like to talk about 1032 00:39:32,390 --> 00:39:29,839 this too uh no you made a very good 1033 00:39:34,310 --> 00:39:32,400 point tom i think when you look across 1034 00:39:36,230 --> 00:39:34,320 alaska greenland and antarctica you're 1035 00:39:38,310 --> 00:39:36,240 seeing a whole range of climate 1036 00:39:40,710 --> 00:39:38,320 variables we we're moving from the very 1037 00:39:43,589 --> 00:39:40,720 warm areas to the less warm to the very 1038 00:39:45,829 --> 00:39:43,599 cold and looking at alaska glaciers 1039 00:39:48,470 --> 00:39:45,839 tells us what greenland would look like 1040 00:39:49,910 --> 00:39:48,480 probably in a century or a few centuries 1041 00:39:51,589 --> 00:39:49,920 and what's happening in greenland is 1042 00:39:53,990 --> 00:39:51,599 relevant to what's going to happen to 1043 00:39:56,870 --> 00:39:54,000 antarctica in the future as well so 1044 00:39:59,190 --> 00:39:56,880 they're all connected pieces of research 1045 00:40:00,870 --> 00:39:59,200 it's true that in alaska we have now 1046 00:40:02,870 --> 00:40:00,880 fewer glaciers that reach the ocean 1047 00:40:04,390 --> 00:40:02,880 because they melted away 1048 00:40:06,150 --> 00:40:04,400 in greenland 1049 00:40:07,910 --> 00:40:06,160 the vast majority of the glaciers 1050 00:40:10,310 --> 00:40:07,920 controlling the mass balance are 1051 00:40:12,790 --> 00:40:10,320 reaching the ocean and this is why prog 1052 00:40:15,750 --> 00:40:12,800 a program like omg is so critical to 1053 00:40:17,270 --> 00:40:15,760 make major advances in understanding 1054 00:40:20,630 --> 00:40:17,280 these processes 1055 00:40:22,150 --> 00:40:20,640 and this carries on also for antarctica 1056 00:40:24,230 --> 00:40:22,160 because a lot of the processes that are 1057 00:40:27,670 --> 00:40:24,240 taking place in greenland are also 1058 00:40:31,829 --> 00:40:27,680 relevant to antarctic glaciers 1059 00:40:39,510 --> 00:40:35,109 okay thank you our next question is from 1060 00:40:43,829 --> 00:40:42,150 go ahead irene hi thanks very much um i 1061 00:40:46,470 --> 00:40:43,839 have a couple of questions the first i 1062 00:40:48,470 --> 00:40:46,480 guess is kind of a real big picture 1063 00:40:50,150 --> 00:40:48,480 uh which is uh to anybody who'd like to 1064 00:40:53,030 --> 00:40:50,160 answer it um 1065 00:40:58,069 --> 00:40:53,040 what would you like people uh to do with 1066 00:41:01,750 --> 00:40:59,349 hey this is tom again from nasa 1067 00:41:03,750 --> 00:41:01,760 headquarters the most important thing is 1068 00:41:07,270 --> 00:41:03,760 this people need to understand that the 1069 00:41:09,829 --> 00:41:07,280 planet is not it's not changing it's 1070 00:41:11,750 --> 00:41:09,839 also changed and sea level is rising 1071 00:41:13,750 --> 00:41:11,760 right now and the most important thing 1072 00:41:15,750 --> 00:41:13,760 that i'd like people to do with this is 1073 00:41:17,990 --> 00:41:15,760 to understand that we have data now for 1074 00:41:19,829 --> 00:41:18,000 them to use in their planning and the 1075 00:41:22,069 --> 00:41:19,839 way that it goes is about risk tolerance 1076 00:41:24,069 --> 00:41:22,079 so for example if you're going to put in 1077 00:41:25,829 --> 00:41:24,079 major infrastructure like a water 1078 00:41:28,309 --> 00:41:25,839 treatment plant or a power plant in a 1079 00:41:30,710 --> 00:41:28,319 coastal zone things where you need they 1080 00:41:32,870 --> 00:41:30,720 cost society a lot of money to put in 1081 00:41:35,190 --> 00:41:32,880 and you have low tolerance for risk say 1082 00:41:37,190 --> 00:41:35,200 from flooding associated with a storm 1083 00:41:38,470 --> 00:41:37,200 surge or salt water intrusion or any of 1084 00:41:40,790 --> 00:41:38,480 those things 1085 00:41:42,550 --> 00:41:40,800 we have data that you can now use to 1086 00:41:44,550 --> 00:41:42,560 estimate what the impacts are going to 1087 00:41:46,470 --> 00:41:44,560 be in the next hundred years now the 1088 00:41:48,390 --> 00:41:46,480 error bars are still big but the point 1089 00:41:49,990 --> 00:41:48,400 of this conference today 1090 00:41:52,470 --> 00:41:50,000 is to tell you about all the work we're 1091 00:41:53,829 --> 00:41:52,480 doing to narrow that down and what i 1092 00:41:55,349 --> 00:41:53,839 would encourage people to do is to go 1093 00:41:57,270 --> 00:41:55,359 out and read about this as much as they 1094 00:41:59,109 --> 00:41:57,280 can there are resources from the 1095 00:42:00,829 --> 00:41:59,119 published papers we've talked about but 1096 00:42:03,349 --> 00:42:00,839 there are also places like 1097 00:42:05,030 --> 00:42:03,359 climate.data.gov um do any of the other 1098 00:42:06,790 --> 00:42:05,040 speakers want to add into what i've just 1099 00:42:08,950 --> 00:42:06,800 said 1100 00:42:10,390 --> 00:42:08,960 yeah this is josh i would i would just 1101 00:42:12,230 --> 00:42:10,400 add that 1102 00:42:14,309 --> 00:42:12,240 i think one of the main takeaways is 1103 00:42:15,589 --> 00:42:14,319 that people need to be prepared for sea 1104 00:42:17,190 --> 00:42:15,599 level rise 1105 00:42:19,109 --> 00:42:17,200 we're going to continue to have sea 1106 00:42:21,750 --> 00:42:19,119 level rise for 1107 00:42:23,910 --> 00:42:21,760 decades and probably centuries it's not 1108 00:42:25,270 --> 00:42:23,920 going to stop the question is how fast 1109 00:42:26,870 --> 00:42:25,280 is it going to be 1110 00:42:29,030 --> 00:42:26,880 and if you 1111 00:42:31,990 --> 00:42:29,040 live on a coastline or if you have some 1112 00:42:34,150 --> 00:42:32,000 economic dependence on a coastline 1113 00:42:36,630 --> 00:42:34,160 we have to be prepared for for rising 1114 00:42:38,470 --> 00:42:36,640 seas it's not a question of 1115 00:42:42,390 --> 00:42:38,480 when or it's not a question of how much 1116 00:42:46,710 --> 00:42:44,470 thanks very much and i have two kind of 1117 00:42:49,190 --> 00:42:46,720 housekeeping uh questions for you josh 1118 00:42:51,030 --> 00:42:49,200 um the first is um i might have just 1119 00:42:53,109 --> 00:42:51,040 misheard you but when you said that uh 1120 00:42:55,430 --> 00:42:53,119 you were talking about the um falling 1121 00:42:57,750 --> 00:42:55,440 levels in the pacific over the past 22 1122 00:42:59,190 --> 00:42:57,760 years and then you said that 1123 00:43:00,630 --> 00:42:59,200 you know that could change and we could 1124 00:43:03,750 --> 00:43:00,640 be looking at 1125 00:43:05,670 --> 00:43:03,760 much faster sea level rise um on the u.s 1126 00:43:07,990 --> 00:43:05,680 i thought i heard you say east coast in 1127 00:43:10,150 --> 00:43:08,000 the next 20 years um did i mishear you 1128 00:43:11,990 --> 00:43:10,160 did did you mean sorry i may have i may 1129 00:43:14,069 --> 00:43:12,000 have misspoken but it should be the west 1130 00:43:16,470 --> 00:43:14,079 coast of course the east coast has 1131 00:43:18,150 --> 00:43:16,480 rising sea levels as well but they tend 1132 00:43:20,230 --> 00:43:18,160 to be much steadier 1133 00:43:23,109 --> 00:43:20,240 on the west coast on the coast of 1134 00:43:24,470 --> 00:43:23,119 california washington and oregon we've 1135 00:43:26,630 --> 00:43:24,480 certainly seen 1136 00:43:27,829 --> 00:43:26,640 almost no sea level and a slight sea 1137 00:43:29,910 --> 00:43:27,839 level drop 1138 00:43:31,750 --> 00:43:29,920 but this is a temporary thing we're 1139 00:43:34,630 --> 00:43:31,760 we're going to see sea level rise on our 1140 00:43:36,150 --> 00:43:34,640 coast uh sometime in the next 20 years 1141 00:43:38,630 --> 00:43:36,160 we'll probably see 1142 00:43:40,390 --> 00:43:38,640 faster than average sea level rise so we 1143 00:43:42,069 --> 00:43:40,400 have to be prepared 1144 00:43:44,870 --> 00:43:42,079 thanks and then the other question is 1145 00:43:46,870 --> 00:43:44,880 just about um jason iii um considering 1146 00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:46,880 the importance of that mission are you 1147 00:43:51,670 --> 00:43:49,040 guys still um do you guys have any 1148 00:43:55,750 --> 00:43:51,680 problems being uh next in line when 1149 00:43:58,630 --> 00:43:55,760 spacex resumes flights well uh spacex 1150 00:44:00,790 --> 00:43:58,640 and nasa are working together to 1151 00:44:03,589 --> 00:44:00,800 understand the problem uh 1152 00:44:05,030 --> 00:44:03,599 that caused the anomaly uh on the the 1153 00:44:07,349 --> 00:44:05,040 previous launch 1154 00:44:09,829 --> 00:44:07,359 and when everyone's happy then we'll set 1155 00:44:12,390 --> 00:44:09,839 a new launch date and 1156 00:44:14,069 --> 00:44:12,400 i i don't have any real new news on that 1157 00:44:15,589 --> 00:44:14,079 i accept to say that everyone's working 1158 00:44:17,109 --> 00:44:15,599 really hard and 1159 00:44:19,910 --> 00:44:17,119 looking forward to 1160 00:44:23,030 --> 00:44:19,920 launching as soon as we can 1161 00:44:25,829 --> 00:44:23,040 as safely as we can 1162 00:44:28,390 --> 00:44:25,839 okay thank you next question is from 1163 00:44:29,190 --> 00:44:28,400 eric nyler at discovery news go ahead 1164 00:44:32,150 --> 00:44:29,200 eric 1165 00:44:34,790 --> 00:44:32,160 hi uh good afternoon everybody um just 1166 00:44:36,870 --> 00:44:34,800 wanted to to get a little context and 1167 00:44:40,309 --> 00:44:36,880 significance of the 1168 00:44:42,230 --> 00:44:40,319 uh recent data from greenland on this 12 1169 00:44:44,790 --> 00:44:42,240 square kilometer 1170 00:44:46,470 --> 00:44:44,800 uh hunk of glacier that 1171 00:44:48,710 --> 00:44:46,480 cracked up 1172 00:44:50,630 --> 00:44:48,720 does this happen every summer is this 1173 00:44:54,230 --> 00:44:50,640 gonna you know 1174 00:44:56,069 --> 00:44:54,240 uh re-freeze this this winter i mean is 1175 00:44:58,309 --> 00:44:56,079 you know what does this mean when we can 1176 00:45:01,190 --> 00:44:58,319 run pictures of it but i need to know 1177 00:45:04,870 --> 00:45:01,200 how big a deal it is and um and and some 1178 00:45:07,430 --> 00:45:04,880 analysis of it 1179 00:45:08,710 --> 00:45:07,440 i i can i can take that uh this is eric 1180 00:45:10,950 --> 00:45:08,720 um 1181 00:45:13,589 --> 00:45:10,960 i think this is a continuing and 1182 00:45:16,470 --> 00:45:13,599 evolving story on jakob seven is very 1183 00:45:19,510 --> 00:45:16,480 the the largest ice stream in green it's 1184 00:45:21,670 --> 00:45:19,520 a major feature in greenland uh the 1185 00:45:23,829 --> 00:45:21,680 retreat started in 2002 it's still 1186 00:45:26,069 --> 00:45:23,839 ongoing and some of the calving events 1187 00:45:28,230 --> 00:45:26,079 that we've seen this this summer which 1188 00:45:29,829 --> 00:45:28,240 are spectacular because they're very big 1189 00:45:31,190 --> 00:45:29,839 and they make the ice front retreat 1190 00:45:33,030 --> 00:45:31,200 farther inland 1191 00:45:36,790 --> 00:45:33,040 they were preceded by similar big 1192 00:45:39,750 --> 00:45:36,800 carving events in 2011 2010 1193 00:45:41,910 --> 00:45:39,760 they are examples of what we are likely 1194 00:45:43,750 --> 00:45:41,920 to see more and more along the coast of 1195 00:45:45,030 --> 00:45:43,760 greenland as the glaciers retreat 1196 00:45:47,349 --> 00:45:45,040 fathering land 1197 00:45:50,470 --> 00:45:47,359 and we are moving into a set of 1198 00:45:52,790 --> 00:45:50,480 processes where we have uh very tall 1199 00:45:54,470 --> 00:45:52,800 carving cliffs that are unstable and 1200 00:45:56,790 --> 00:45:54,480 start fracturing 1201 00:45:58,470 --> 00:45:56,800 and break up into icebergs and 1202 00:45:59,910 --> 00:45:58,480 the ice front of the glacier starts 1203 00:46:02,150 --> 00:45:59,920 retreating in land 1204 00:46:04,069 --> 00:46:02,160 and as a result the glacier has more 1205 00:46:05,510 --> 00:46:04,079 reasons to continue to speed up and 1206 00:46:07,750 --> 00:46:05,520 retreat 1207 00:46:10,630 --> 00:46:07,760 some of this evolution we've we've never 1208 00:46:13,430 --> 00:46:10,640 seen something like this on that scale 1209 00:46:16,069 --> 00:46:13,440 before so what's happening in jakobson 1210 00:46:18,630 --> 00:46:16,079 is extremely important and relevant 1211 00:46:20,309 --> 00:46:18,640 to other pieces of greenland 1212 00:46:23,510 --> 00:46:20,319 and and personally 1213 00:46:25,190 --> 00:46:23,520 i am i am in awe and seeing how fast the 1214 00:46:27,510 --> 00:46:25,200 ice fought the calving fault of these 1215 00:46:28,950 --> 00:46:27,520 glaciers is retweeting england year by 1216 00:46:30,710 --> 00:46:28,960 year 1217 00:46:34,309 --> 00:46:30,720 this big piece of ice that uh 1218 00:46:36,550 --> 00:46:34,319 disappeared a few weeks ago is is not 1219 00:46:38,710 --> 00:46:36,560 going to be replaced easily by some 1220 00:46:40,950 --> 00:46:38,720 re-advance over the winter 1221 00:46:42,950 --> 00:46:40,960 we're seeing a continuous retreat of 1222 00:46:44,950 --> 00:46:42,960 this size front is of course modulated 1223 00:46:46,550 --> 00:46:44,960 by seasonal variations 1224 00:46:48,390 --> 00:46:46,560 so you have some oscillations around the 1225 00:46:50,150 --> 00:46:48,400 mean position but the ice front is 1226 00:46:52,230 --> 00:46:50,160 clearly retreating 1227 00:46:56,230 --> 00:46:52,240 on a steady rate inland into these 1228 00:47:00,550 --> 00:46:59,030 okay thank you our next question is from 1229 00:47:01,829 --> 00:47:00,560 jerry hume 1230 00:47:03,349 --> 00:47:01,839 go ahead jerry 1231 00:47:05,349 --> 00:47:03,359 hi yes uh 1232 00:47:06,790 --> 00:47:05,359 i'm with news 13 here in orlando so 1233 00:47:08,870 --> 00:47:06,800 florida was mentioned at the beginning 1234 00:47:10,550 --> 00:47:08,880 of the conference call i just was 1235 00:47:12,550 --> 00:47:10,560 wondering what this research means for 1236 00:47:14,950 --> 00:47:12,560 florida's coastline in the next century 1237 00:47:19,510 --> 00:47:14,960 and what should people do now 1238 00:47:26,150 --> 00:47:22,550 okay steve do you want to take that one 1239 00:47:27,510 --> 00:47:26,160 sure um you know so florida's is 1240 00:47:29,750 --> 00:47:27,520 probably one of the more vulnerable 1241 00:47:30,950 --> 00:47:29,760 areas in the country for sea level rises 1242 00:47:31,829 --> 00:47:30,960 as you know 1243 00:47:33,990 --> 00:47:31,839 and 1244 00:47:36,230 --> 00:47:34,000 you know right now we're we're saying 1245 00:47:37,990 --> 00:47:36,240 that you know we've committed to 1246 00:47:41,190 --> 00:47:38,000 probably more than three feet of sea 1247 00:47:42,950 --> 00:47:41,200 level rise um just based on uh the 1248 00:47:44,069 --> 00:47:42,960 warming we've had so far 1249 00:47:51,270 --> 00:47:44,079 so 1250 00:47:54,309 --> 00:47:51,280 the areas in florida because of the 1251 00:47:55,910 --> 00:47:54,319 limestone that it's built on so i think 1252 00:47:58,230 --> 00:47:55,920 this is uh 1253 00:48:00,230 --> 00:47:58,240 in a way this is a you know kind of a 1254 00:48:02,069 --> 00:48:00,240 a warning call for you guys down there 1255 00:48:03,670 --> 00:48:02,079 that that florida needs to start 1256 00:48:05,670 --> 00:48:03,680 thinking about how it's going to deal 1257 00:48:07,510 --> 00:48:05,680 with this sea level rise that's sure to 1258 00:48:09,510 --> 00:48:07,520 come 1259 00:48:12,390 --> 00:48:09,520 okay and my other question was how does 1260 00:48:20,710 --> 00:48:12,400 the combination of sea levels and 1261 00:48:25,510 --> 00:48:22,230 hey this is tom so one of the things 1262 00:48:27,670 --> 00:48:25,520 that happens is again as sea levels rise 1263 00:48:30,069 --> 00:48:27,680 the storm surge goes higher up on the 1264 00:48:31,670 --> 00:48:30,079 coast and causes more damage i kind of 1265 00:48:33,430 --> 00:48:31,680 will point out too that this is 1266 00:48:34,950 --> 00:48:33,440 significant enough that nasa kennedy 1267 00:48:36,630 --> 00:48:34,960 space center actually has an aggressive 1268 00:48:38,230 --> 00:48:36,640 program to deal with this 1269 00:48:40,230 --> 00:48:38,240 it's to the point where they've actually 1270 00:48:41,510 --> 00:48:40,240 created a map of the center to go and 1271 00:48:43,109 --> 00:48:41,520 figure out what areas they're going to 1272 00:48:44,069 --> 00:48:43,119 have to sacrifice and lose and what 1273 00:48:46,309 --> 00:48:44,079 areas they're going to be able to 1274 00:48:48,230 --> 00:48:46,319 continue to use so they can launch into 1275 00:48:50,390 --> 00:48:48,240 the next century and if you look up on 1276 00:48:51,990 --> 00:48:50,400 nasa's earth observatory site you can 1277 00:48:53,510 --> 00:48:52,000 actually see a story about this right 1278 00:48:55,349 --> 00:48:53,520 now 1279 00:48:57,349 --> 00:48:55,359 all right thank you 1280 00:49:01,109 --> 00:48:57,359 thank you our next question comes from 1281 00:49:02,710 --> 00:49:01,119 tim folger national geographic online 1282 00:49:04,069 --> 00:49:02,720 go ahead hi thank you 1283 00:49:05,670 --> 00:49:04,079 thank you um 1284 00:49:07,030 --> 00:49:05,680 is it known why antarctica's 1285 00:49:08,549 --> 00:49:07,040 contribution to 1286 00:49:11,030 --> 00:49:08,559 sea level rise has been less than 1287 00:49:12,630 --> 00:49:11,040 greenland's and one other possibly 1288 00:49:15,109 --> 00:49:12,640 related question 1289 00:49:16,710 --> 00:49:15,119 are we likely to see an acceleration of 1290 00:49:18,390 --> 00:49:16,720 ice loss 1291 00:49:20,390 --> 00:49:18,400 with less light being reflected back 1292 00:49:21,670 --> 00:49:20,400 into space and more light being absorbed 1293 00:49:27,430 --> 00:49:21,680 by the 1294 00:49:32,069 --> 00:49:30,230 eric would you like to address that one 1295 00:49:33,510 --> 00:49:32,079 uh i i'm not sure what caught the first 1296 00:49:34,950 --> 00:49:33,520 part of the question why is antarctica 1297 00:49:36,309 --> 00:49:34,960 contributing less than greenland was 1298 00:49:37,430 --> 00:49:36,319 that defense yes 1299 00:49:38,390 --> 00:49:37,440 yeah 1300 00:49:41,910 --> 00:49:38,400 all in 1301 00:49:45,190 --> 00:49:41,920 in greenland we have a response of 1302 00:49:46,790 --> 00:49:45,200 almost the entire ice sheet to 1303 00:49:48,549 --> 00:49:46,800 ongoing warming 1304 00:49:51,109 --> 00:49:48,559 in antarctica 1305 00:49:54,870 --> 00:49:51,119 we have leakage of ice only from a few 1306 00:49:56,710 --> 00:49:54,880 sectors italica is a very big place and 1307 00:49:59,030 --> 00:49:56,720 in fact i would turn it around and say 1308 00:50:02,470 --> 00:49:59,040 that with only these few sectors of 1309 00:50:04,549 --> 00:50:02,480 antarctica contributing right now 1310 00:50:06,390 --> 00:50:04,559 it's almost comparable to what's 1311 00:50:08,150 --> 00:50:06,400 happening to greenland and we know that 1312 00:50:10,390 --> 00:50:08,160 in the future if 1313 00:50:11,510 --> 00:50:10,400 more parts of antarctica react to 1314 00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:11,520 warming 1315 00:50:15,589 --> 00:50:13,040 the signal from antarctica will 1316 00:50:17,910 --> 00:50:15,599 obviously overwhelm what's happening uh 1317 00:50:19,270 --> 00:50:17,920 in greenland 1318 00:50:20,630 --> 00:50:19,280 the second part of the question could 1319 00:50:22,790 --> 00:50:20,640 you 1320 00:50:23,829 --> 00:50:22,800 yes the second part of the question was 1321 00:50:26,150 --> 00:50:23,839 are we 1322 00:50:27,430 --> 00:50:26,160 likely to see an acceleration of ice 1323 00:50:29,750 --> 00:50:27,440 loss 1324 00:50:32,549 --> 00:50:29,760 in the decades ahead we're not likely to 1325 00:50:35,829 --> 00:50:32,559 see it we are seeing it right now 1326 00:50:37,510 --> 00:50:35,839 in fact this this whole discussion is is 1327 00:50:39,109 --> 00:50:37,520 about sea level rise 1328 00:50:42,230 --> 00:50:39,119 rising now we're not talking about 1329 00:50:44,630 --> 00:50:42,240 futuristic scenarios sea level rise is 1330 00:50:46,390 --> 00:50:44,640 rising one foot per century and we're 1331 00:50:48,549 --> 00:50:46,400 talking about the possibility of this 1332 00:50:50,549 --> 00:50:48,559 being three feet by century or even 30 1333 00:50:53,670 --> 00:50:50,559 feet per century if the ice sheets were 1334 00:50:56,710 --> 00:50:53,680 to decay in a very rapid mode 1335 00:50:58,630 --> 00:50:56,720 the acceleration we can see it with 1336 00:51:01,109 --> 00:50:58,640 the grace record we can see it with the 1337 00:51:02,950 --> 00:51:01,119 longer records combining the speed of 1338 00:51:03,829 --> 00:51:02,960 the glaciers with surface mass balance 1339 00:51:05,670 --> 00:51:03,839 model 1340 00:51:06,630 --> 00:51:05,680 the ice sheets are contributing 1341 00:51:09,109 --> 00:51:06,640 more 1342 00:51:11,270 --> 00:51:09,119 every year to sea level rise and we know 1343 00:51:13,190 --> 00:51:11,280 that this trend will only continue 1344 00:51:15,990 --> 00:51:13,200 there's no reason to expect that the ice 1345 00:51:17,990 --> 00:51:16,000 sheets will melt in the linear fashion 1346 00:51:20,710 --> 00:51:18,000 we know from physics that they will 1347 00:51:23,030 --> 00:51:20,720 react to warming in a long linear 1348 00:51:25,510 --> 00:51:23,040 fashion meaning the melting of ice 1349 00:51:27,990 --> 00:51:25,520 sheets will keep increasing faster and 1350 00:51:30,069 --> 00:51:28,000 faster with time and that's why some of 1351 00:51:31,990 --> 00:51:30,079 the measurements collected by nasa and 1352 00:51:35,109 --> 00:51:32,000 other agencies right now 1353 00:51:37,510 --> 00:51:35,119 are an important red flag on what's 1354 00:51:39,270 --> 00:51:37,520 about to come which is going to be much 1355 00:51:42,390 --> 00:51:39,280 larger than what we've been witnessing 1356 00:51:44,150 --> 00:51:42,400 in the past 20 30 years 1357 00:51:45,430 --> 00:51:44,160 hey just to add together this is tom 1358 00:51:47,109 --> 00:51:45,440 your question i know you were also 1359 00:51:49,270 --> 00:51:47,119 interested in the loss of sea ice and 1360 00:51:50,630 --> 00:51:49,280 the change of albedo that is one of the 1361 00:51:52,150 --> 00:51:50,640 things that we work on in the arctic 1362 00:51:53,670 --> 00:51:52,160 ocean is there is warming that gets 1363 00:51:55,430 --> 00:51:53,680 associated with that it's kind of a 1364 00:51:56,870 --> 00:51:55,440 complicated problem though too because 1365 00:51:59,349 --> 00:51:56,880 when you don't have ice on the surface 1366 00:52:00,549 --> 00:51:59,359 you can let more heat out of the ocean 1367 00:52:02,150 --> 00:52:00,559 and that's kind of the cutting edge of 1368 00:52:04,470 --> 00:52:02,160 the research looking at the relation 1369 00:52:06,309 --> 00:52:04,480 between changes in sea ice cover changes 1370 00:52:08,069 --> 00:52:06,319 in ocean temperatures and then also 1371 00:52:11,349 --> 00:52:08,079 connecting that up to the changes in the 1372 00:52:13,430 --> 00:52:11,359 land-based ice that's around those 1373 00:52:15,990 --> 00:52:13,440 okay thanks our next question is from 1374 00:52:18,309 --> 00:52:16,000 jonathan amos bbc 1375 00:52:20,710 --> 00:52:18,319 go ahead hi steve thanks uh very much 1376 00:52:22,870 --> 00:52:20,720 for that a couple of questions uh if i 1377 00:52:23,670 --> 00:52:22,880 may first one can somebody explain to me 1378 00:52:32,790 --> 00:52:23,680 the 1379 00:52:34,710 --> 00:52:32,800 ocean mass is that is that a function of 1380 00:52:36,470 --> 00:52:34,720 thermal expansion what's the difference 1381 00:52:39,190 --> 00:52:36,480 between those two rates 1382 00:52:41,589 --> 00:52:39,200 yeah the two rates this is steve uh 1383 00:52:43,670 --> 00:52:41,599 so you know the sea level is really the 1384 00:52:45,990 --> 00:52:43,680 primary causes of the rise the total 1385 00:52:47,430 --> 00:52:46,000 rise is thermal expansion and then the 1386 00:52:49,990 --> 00:52:47,440 melting of ice whether it be from 1387 00:52:52,069 --> 00:52:50,000 glaciers or from the big ice sheets 1388 00:52:53,910 --> 00:52:52,079 and so the difference in those curves 1389 00:52:56,309 --> 00:52:53,920 there is is simply due to thermal 1390 00:52:58,950 --> 00:52:56,319 expansion mainly 1391 00:53:01,510 --> 00:52:58,960 right and my second question is uh is a 1392 00:53:03,589 --> 00:53:01,520 programmatic one and um i don't know if 1393 00:53:06,069 --> 00:53:03,599 it was a question more directed at mike 1394 00:53:07,190 --> 00:53:06,079 but um i know josh may be able to have a 1395 00:53:10,790 --> 00:53:07,200 go at 1396 00:53:13,670 --> 00:53:10,800 this in in europe uh jason is is being 1397 00:53:15,349 --> 00:53:13,680 re-badged sentinel has been 1398 00:53:17,510 --> 00:53:15,359 essentially wrapped into the the 1399 00:53:19,349 --> 00:53:17,520 copernicus program 1400 00:53:21,109 --> 00:53:19,359 here what does that mean for the 1401 00:53:22,069 --> 00:53:21,119 american partnership 1402 00:53:28,069 --> 00:53:22,079 in that 1403 00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:29,750 hi this is josh 1404 00:53:35,190 --> 00:53:32,400 we still certainly want to uh play a 1405 00:53:37,430 --> 00:53:35,200 role in uh the future of satellite 1406 00:53:40,309 --> 00:53:37,440 altimetry uh and i believe there are 1407 00:53:42,870 --> 00:53:40,319 still discussions uh underway about 1408 00:53:44,470 --> 00:53:42,880 exactly what that role will be 1409 00:53:46,470 --> 00:53:44,480 but uh 1410 00:53:48,790 --> 00:53:46,480 you know we still have a very strong and 1411 00:53:51,270 --> 00:53:48,800 vigorous science team which analyzes 1412 00:53:52,870 --> 00:53:51,280 satellite altimetry data which is funded 1413 00:53:55,589 --> 00:53:52,880 by nasa and 1414 00:53:58,710 --> 00:53:55,599 and the french space agency canes 1415 00:53:59,910 --> 00:53:58,720 and we expect to continue to fund a lot 1416 00:54:01,990 --> 00:53:59,920 of science 1417 00:54:04,549 --> 00:54:02,000 and also make contributions to this 1418 00:54:06,790 --> 00:54:04,559 mission uh but uh i think the details 1419 00:54:08,150 --> 00:54:06,800 are are still forthcoming on what 1420 00:54:10,230 --> 00:54:08,160 exactly the contribution the u.s 1421 00:54:12,230 --> 00:54:10,240 contribution will be for uh for the 1422 00:54:15,030 --> 00:54:12,240 jason cs mission 1423 00:54:16,950 --> 00:54:15,040 right okay thanks 1424 00:54:19,030 --> 00:54:16,960 okay our next question is from amy green 1425 00:54:20,390 --> 00:54:19,040 at wmfe 1426 00:54:23,349 --> 00:54:20,400 go ahead amy 1427 00:54:24,870 --> 00:54:23,359 oh hi there um i am calling from orlando 1428 00:54:27,670 --> 00:54:24,880 i wondered if you could elaborate a 1429 00:54:29,190 --> 00:54:27,680 little bit more on florida's picture in 1430 00:54:30,309 --> 00:54:29,200 the future 1431 00:54:31,990 --> 00:54:30,319 you say 1432 00:54:34,549 --> 00:54:32,000 florida is one of the most vulnerable 1433 00:54:36,790 --> 00:54:34,559 places in the country for sea level rise 1434 00:54:39,670 --> 00:54:36,800 what are the forces that are combining 1435 00:54:41,430 --> 00:54:39,680 to create that unique 1436 00:54:43,910 --> 00:54:41,440 situation for florida certainly there 1437 00:54:46,710 --> 00:54:43,920 are other popular states like california 1438 00:54:48,790 --> 00:54:46,720 and texas with large coastlines alaska 1439 00:54:50,870 --> 00:54:48,800 of course is is 1440 00:54:52,870 --> 00:54:50,880 is very vulnerable what is unique about 1441 00:54:55,109 --> 00:54:52,880 florida's situation 1442 00:54:57,109 --> 00:54:55,119 uh this is steve uh it's very simple 1443 00:54:59,109 --> 00:54:57,119 just the the elevations of florida are 1444 00:54:59,990 --> 00:54:59,119 very low compared to those other places 1445 00:55:00,870 --> 00:55:00,000 so 1446 00:55:03,349 --> 00:55:00,880 um 1447 00:55:05,190 --> 00:55:03,359 so sea level rises the the amount of 1448 00:55:07,190 --> 00:55:05,200 land that will be 1449 00:55:09,270 --> 00:55:07,200 inundated is much bigger 1450 00:55:11,990 --> 00:55:09,280 than in a lot of other places around the 1451 00:55:15,510 --> 00:55:14,390 i would just uh add to that very quickly 1452 00:55:18,470 --> 00:55:15,520 that 1453 00:55:21,670 --> 00:55:18,480 florida also is a very the land on which 1454 00:55:24,470 --> 00:55:21,680 florida sits is uh very porous and so 1455 00:55:28,470 --> 00:55:24,480 sea level is or salt water is able to 1456 00:55:30,390 --> 00:55:28,480 intrude uh underneath uh and uh in in 1457 00:55:32,230 --> 00:55:30,400 toward the fresh water supply a little 1458 00:55:35,670 --> 00:55:32,240 more rapidly in florida because of the 1459 00:55:38,309 --> 00:55:35,680 the porous land 1460 00:55:42,309 --> 00:55:40,870 okay thank you i've got uh time for one 1461 00:55:45,750 --> 00:55:42,319 last question here it's from social 1462 00:55:47,990 --> 00:55:45,760 media um if all the land ice melted on 1463 00:55:51,030 --> 00:55:48,000 the planet how high would sea level rise 1464 00:55:54,150 --> 00:55:51,040 kind of a worst case scenario 1465 00:55:55,829 --> 00:55:54,160 is there a number for that eric 1466 00:55:58,549 --> 00:55:55,839 um 1467 00:56:03,910 --> 00:55:58,559 i think it's in the range of 60 meters 1468 00:56:07,589 --> 00:56:05,589 okay 1469 00:56:10,150 --> 00:56:07,599 thank you well that's all the uh 1470 00:56:12,390 --> 00:56:10,160 questions so we'll wrap it up a couple 1471 00:56:15,430 --> 00:56:12,400 of program notes and links for everybody 1472 00:56:16,870 --> 00:56:15,440 uh this friday at one o'clock eastern 1473 00:56:19,430 --> 00:56:16,880 goddard space flight center will be 1474 00:56:21,030 --> 00:56:19,440 hosting a live television program about 1475 00:56:23,589 --> 00:56:21,040 nasa's research 1476 00:56:24,470 --> 00:56:23,599 in and on the massive greenland ice 1477 00:56:26,390 --> 00:56:24,480 sheet 1478 00:56:28,549 --> 00:56:26,400 the event will feature scientists who 1479 00:56:30,630 --> 00:56:28,559 have been actively conducting field work 1480 00:56:32,470 --> 00:56:30,640 in greenland this summer with some 1481 00:56:34,230 --> 00:56:32,480 extensive video footage of the work 1482 00:56:36,309 --> 00:56:34,240 they've been performing 1483 00:56:40,470 --> 00:56:36,319 to watch that it'll be streamed online 1484 00:56:45,030 --> 00:56:42,549 nasa tv 1485 00:56:47,030 --> 00:56:45,040 also we've set up a website that will be 1486 00:56:49,510 --> 00:56:47,040 collecting all the materials we're 1487 00:56:51,670 --> 00:56:49,520 putting out about the rising seas this 1488 00:56:52,950 --> 00:56:51,680 week including uh materials from this 1489 00:56:56,470 --> 00:56:52,960 press briefing 1490 00:56:57,510 --> 00:56:56,480 that url is www.nasa.gov 1491 00:56:59,589 --> 00:56:57,520 slash 1492 00:57:02,390 --> 00:56:59,599 rising seas 1493 00:57:05,589 --> 00:57:02,400 and you can follow all the activities on 1494 00:57:07,190 --> 00:57:05,599 social media on two new social media 1495 00:57:09,589 --> 00:57:07,200 accounts from nasa 1496 00:57:12,390 --> 00:57:09,599 called nasa c level we have both a 1497 00:57:13,430 --> 00:57:12,400 twitter and a facebook account that just 1498 00:57:14,549 --> 00:57:13,440 went live 1499 00:57:17,430 --> 00:57:14,559 this week 1500 00:57:20,230 --> 00:57:17,440 and referring back to the 1501 00:57:21,829 --> 00:57:20,240 web page where graphics are for this 1502 00:57:24,390 --> 00:57:21,839 press briefing 1503 00:57:26,470 --> 00:57:24,400 during the call we added a link to the 1504 00:57:29,750 --> 00:57:26,480 top of that page if you want to look at 1505 00:57:30,870 --> 00:57:29,760 that page under for more information we 1506 00:57:32,630 --> 00:57:30,880 now have 1507 00:57:34,950 --> 00:57:32,640 a link 1508 00:57:37,750 --> 00:57:34,960 titled sea level rise 1509 00:57:39,510 --> 00:57:37,760 video resources a lot of downloadable 1510 00:57:41,589 --> 00:57:39,520 high definition 1511 00:57:44,549 --> 00:57:41,599 footage and clips there 1512 00:57:46,549 --> 00:57:44,559 from both data animations and some of 1513 00:57:49,270 --> 00:57:46,559 the activity that has been going on in 1514 00:57:50,630 --> 00:57:49,280 greenland and just to repeat that url so 1515 00:57:53,990 --> 00:57:50,640 everyone has it 1516 00:57:55,670 --> 00:57:54,000 it is go.nasa.gov 1517 00:57:59,190 --> 00:57:55,680 slash 1518 00:58:01,190 --> 00:57:59,200 rising seas briefing 1519 00:58:04,069 --> 00:58:01,200 so that comes to the end of our briefing 1520 00:58:05,589 --> 00:58:04,079 today thank you everybody for listening 1521 00:58:06,789 --> 00:58:05,599 have a good day 1522 00:58:08,390 --> 00:58:06,799 bye-bye 1523 00:58:10,390 --> 00:58:08,400 thank you for your participation in